Wagons West

I’m going to be a little subtle here, so please feel free to leave a comment in case you need me to clarify the next statement:

WE AREN’T GONNA WIN THE SOUTH ANY TIME SOON!

You may need to read that sentence a few times to really be able to comprehend it.

As an interesting little excercize, a friend and I had went through the Southern red states to see which ones were winnable. With an over 60% majority, Texas is out. As are, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Kansas. I’m basing this off of a threshold of 55%. It’s an arbitrary number, I fully admit, however; I figure any state that was won with a 55% majority or greater is pretty safe to call out of play for the future.

So the South is out, definitely, as my New York friends like to say, fuggedaboudit. Mark Z. Barbarak of the L.A. Times, though, wrote a piece that points out that while the South may be a lost cause, the West isn’t.

An important, all be it no brainer, quote from the article comes from the 2004 head of the Colorodo Democratic Party, Chris Gates. “The math simply isn’t there if we keep winning the same 10 states.” Which, as this past election has taught us, is very true.

What makes the more Western red states attainable to the Democratic Party is the fact that social conservatism isn’t that big of a deal. Think about it, do you think Nevada wants a government ran by Christianity? Again, according to the article, the Republicans are seen less as the party of lower taxes, and more of the party moral values. In a bunch of states that take on the opinion of live and let live, that’s not necessarily a good thing.

Let’s look at the numbers. New Mexico was only won by 50%, Colorodo, 52%, Nevada, 51%, and Arizona tops out the Southwest at 55%. Utah’s a wash at 72% (wonder why that is), and everything North and East of that and you get into the Midwest which would seem to be even more off limits than the South.

But adding up the electoral votes, you’re looking at 29. Switch them over and the final results of last election look like this: Bush-257, Kerry 281.

In other words, who needs Florida? Dem’s! Wagons West!

M

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