Pessimism on the 28 pt plan for peace

The Maliki plan for reconciliation in Iraq is a 28 point plan that tries to sidestep several deal breakers by handwaving and pushing off the decisions that need to be made to someone else at some undefined point in the future. In short, he is doing what has become the norm in the Iraqi political process for the past three years; pass the buck and duck from the incoming RPG fire.

The major point of contention is US forces — the plan is that there will some vague, undefinable success metric that will allow the US to pull out completely, or at least pull out the combat brigades, as the Iraqi military is designed to be a dysfunctional joke if it is forced to self-sustain for more than a couple of days of combat operations. And here is the problem.

The Sunni Arab insurgency has fought the US military and the Iraqi military to an operational draw over the past three years; they have achieved a continued downward spiral to fail statehood as they have exercised the one veto option that they have — armed resistance to the Baghdad central government. One of their primary intermediate goals is to get the US out of Iraq in all shapes and forms. This has prompted the major Sunni Arab insurgent groups to reject this overture. If the US leaves, they greatly increase their influence with internal ‘political’ processes.

The Shi’ite government knows this, and knows that their military has been repeatedly shown to be deadmeat against the insurgents and that the military has questionable and divided loyalties. For this reason, they need US troops in country and conducting combat operations for as long as possible. Therefore we have an almost unsolvable dilemna — the Shi;ite government needs to make an anti-US forces in country stand for the benefit of Sadr and his movement of Shi’ite nationalists and centralists, but they need several US divisions to hold onto power. Therefore the political process is still a joke in my mind.

I hope to be proven wrong, but punt the ball and pray for a deux ex machina intervention one or two friedmans later to solve the avoided and difficult problems has not been a successful problem solving strategy.

UPDATE Read this London Times article on the internal governmental tensions leading to hardlining the proposal before it is even officially released…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Connect with Facebook