CornDogs and Irishmen Tour
I’m relaunching my “Grill Rats” comic strip that I started many moons ago. I posted it to Zencomix about a year and a half ago, but I’m expanding the story and adding some New Characters. Also, I’ve improved the scanning job. Some of you readers might recognize some of the strips from previous postings. There were only a couple weeks worth, so bear with me as I re-introduce the old characters and introduce the new ones along with new story elements.The Freeper’s not gonna let that War On Halloween go with out a fight!
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The Weird One Is Out
Bill Frist has announced he will not seek the Republican nomination for President.
Damn. Things are looking bad for the cats.
[The pic is a classic from Jesus' General].
How’s Your Boy?
Not so good Mr. President, he is stuck in Iraq.
At a recent White House reception for freshman members of Congress, Virginia’s newest senator tried to avoid President Bush. Democrat James Webb declined to stand in a presidential receiving line or to have his picture taken with the man he had often criticized on the stump this fall. But it wasn’t long before Bush found him.“How’s your boy?” Bush asked, referring to Webb’s son, a Marine serving in Iraq.
“I’d like to get them out of Iraq, Mr. President,” Webb responded, echoing a campaign theme.
“That’s not what I asked you,” Bush said. “How’s your boy?”
“That’s between me and my boy, Mr. President,” Webb said coldly, ending the conversation on the State Floor of the East Wing of the White House.
Cheney Leaving? Don’t Believe The Hype
Think Progress has a post up that’s fueling speculation that Dick Cheney may soon be stepping down.
VPs just don’t step down without a massive scandal hangin’ around their neck (e.g. Spiro Agnew). Moreover, neocons typically leave years too late (e.g. Rummy).
Expect Cheney to emerge from his hidden bunker and announce his resignation about a year after Bush is out of office.
A Simple reminder on Metrics
Metrics are useful things as they convey concise information and allow comparisons between actual and ideal situations fairly easily. However they are easily manipulated. Housing Bubble Casualty notes how the California Association of Realtors is playing with their metrics:
The minimum household income first-time buyers needed to purchase a home at $478,710 in California in the third quarter of 2006 was $98,890, based on an adjustable interest rate of 6.58 percent and assuming a 10 percent down payment. First-time buyers typically purchase a home equal to 85 percent of the prevailing median price. The monthly payment including taxes and insurance was $3,300 for the third quarter of 2006.
—————-First off, the OLD standard used to be 20% down and a FIXED rate loan. Now, they are using 10% down and an ADJUSTABLE rate loan. Looks like the ole “when things aren’t looking as good as we think they should, we will just change the standard”. It has been used successfully with SAT scores, so why not housing stats? After all, if we just change the ’standard’ every so often, we can show progress with each new ’standard’. Don’t believe me…here is the link to a report from December 2005 that uses the ‘old’ 20% down standard: The ‘OLD’ affordability index from 2005. Here is the excerpt:
—————-
LOS ANGELES (Dec. 8 ) – The percentage of households in California able to afford a median-priced home stood at 15 percent in October, a 4 percentage-point decrease compared with the same period a year ago when the Index was at 19 percent, according to a report released today by the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.). The October Housing Affordability Index (HAI) was unchanged from September, when it stood at 15 percent.The minimum household income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $538,770 in California in October was $128,480, based on an average effective mortgage interest rate of 6.03 percent and assuming a 20 percent downpayment.
A second institution that is playing with its metrics to make their poor results look better is the US Army. Military.com is reporting that the US Army is taking in significantly more recruits with only a GED instead of a high school diploma. However due to a quirk in the rules, or a specific exemption, these new recruits are excluded from several important force quality measures. This exclusion coincidentlally makes the public affairs officer’s job a whole lot easier.
The Two Tier Attrition Screen (TTAS) is an added quality indicator that officials hope will allow the Army take in many more high school dropouts……….
In fiscal 2006, which ended Sept. 30, the Army brought in 5900 non-high school graduates as TTAS (pronounced T-TAS) recruits. Not only do such recruits help the Army reach its numerical recruiting goals but the Army can exclude these recruits when calculating the percentage of high school diploma graduates recruited, which is an important quality measure.
For example, the Army announced last month that 81 percent of its non-prior service recruits for 2006 were high school graduates. That was disturbingly below the 90 percent Department of Defense standard for every service. But the proportion of high school graduates would have been reported as 74.3 percent if the Army had to count the 5900 TTAS enlistees high school dropouts. The number instead is ignored.
In March, Defense officials gave the Army permission to sign up 8000 TTAS recruits a year to ease increasingly difficult recruiting challenges.
Metrics can be powerful tools, but in these two cases, they can be extemely misleading for people who look at the final number and not the process that produced the number. Just beware when you read reports that you understand how the numbers are created and potentially massaged.
Olbermann: The shame of Bush in Vietnam
Olbermann: The shame of Bush in Vietnam
The Plan Formerly Known As "Cut & Run"
My how things change. It was less than a month ago when Republicans and the Bush administration were smearing any talk of a phased withdrawal as “cut & run.”
Now we get - courtesy of the Washington Post - a sneak preview of the Pentagon’s three proposed options for Iraq - Go Big, Go Long & Go Home.
The first option - Go Big - is really another name for John McCain’s Fantasy Island plan — a plan that makes you sound tough without the baggage of ever having to be pulled off. Here’s what the Post says:
“Go Big,” the first option, originally contemplated a large increase in U.S. troops in Iraq to try to break the cycle of sectarian and insurgent violence. A classic counterinsurgency campaign, though, would require several hundred thousand additional U.S. and Iraqi soldiers as well as heavily armed Iraqi police. That option has been all but rejected by the study group, which concluded that there are not enough troops in the U.S. military and not enough effective Iraqi forces, said sources who have been informally briefed on the review.
The third option - Go Home - is really just there for PR purposes; it is an immediate withdrawal that the administration will say echoes what Dems are calling for even though no Dems are really calling for it. It’s not a serious proposal but will certainly confusing many in the media.
That leaves with Go Long - which is really a form of phased withdrawal; similar to the Kerry and Murtha plans it is something for which a lot of Dems have been calling.
But wait - the Bushies can’t have that. So here is what’s coming:
The group conducting the review is likely to recommend a combination of a small, short-term increase in U.S. troops and a long-term commitment to stepped-up training and advising of Iraqi forces, the officials said.
It’s cut and run with a tough guy feint on the front end.
With troop lives and American interests on the line, it is sad that we continue to see these “serious” foreign policy analysts more concerned about the politics of a resolution than anything else.
And let me tell you what else is missing from the Post piece regarding the various options - any mention of Afghanistan.
How can any of this be taken seriously?
More on Waterboarding
Here is the definition of waterboarding from wikipedia.
Waterboarding is a form of torture. It is used to obtain information, coerce confessions, and for punishment and intimidation. Waterboarding consists of immobilizing an individual and pouring water over his face to simulate drowning, which produces a severe gag reflex, making the subject believe his death is imminent while ideally not causing permanent physical damage. According to Republican Senator John McCain, who was tortured as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam, waterboarding is “very exquisite torture” and a mock execution, which can damage the subject’s psyche “in ways that may never heal.”
This entire debate over whether previously agreed upon, internationally recognized definitions of torture are now acceptable really disgusts me. The premise that somehow the world has changed so dramatically since 9/11 that we are willing to ignore the fact that it was in large part our support of the rule of law internationally that helped launch us into the position of the world’s only superpower is truly disturbing and based solely in fear and ignorance.
Look, we have faced significantly greater threats to our survival over the 230 years of our national existence and no point in the past did we allow fear to rewrite our constitution. This bullshit legal redefinition of torture by Gonzales and Bush should be the thing we fear, not that some invisible terrorist cell is going to attack a shopping mall in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
One Airforce Veteran’s View on Torture
Josh Marshall is seeking feedback on torture from ex-service people on torture.
Defending the United Nations
This mini-documentary represents a valuable defense of the U.N. I am aware this is a hot issue with Libertarians and many Republican (as well as some Democrats) and will likely be brushed off as Liberal propaganda. That would be a mistake. Short of the FoxNEWS jab, which seems a bit on the intentionally deceptive side - Fox can not be the only network with trucks parked a the U.N. on a daily basis (I will give Daniel Noel the benefit of the doubt on this one and write it off as a cheap shot at an easy target) - it is very engaging and informative.
I give Liberty News and Daniel Noel two thumbs up for Defending the United Nations.
Here is a direct link to this video in both WMV and Real Media format. As always comments are welcome.
UPDATE: Thanks to the power of the internet I was granted permission to post this video on YouTube. As a result of their posting requirements it needed to be split into the two parts below.
Part 1
Part 2
read more | digg story | Daily KOS Diary Repost with Poll
Legend Bo Schembechler Dead at 77
I don’t even know what to say so I will let Mitch Album’s words speak for Bo Schembechler’s legacy.
The biggest game doesn’t seem so big anymore, because the biggest man in the history of Michigan football won’t be watching it.
Follow Up to Zen’s Post
After following the links in Zen’s post below I thought it prudent to highlight the following link to Glenn Greenwald’s Unclaimed Territory: Conservative pundits reveal murderous plot by the Travel Section of the NYT!
It is a MUST READ and points out the problem I have had with the pseudo-conservative movement since the early 90’s.
Milhous Fillmore Meets Right Wing Domestic Terrorism
Ok, is anybody BESIDES Larry King surprised by THIS?
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Olbermann - More Media Hypocrisy This one is for X…
Olbermann - More Media Hypocrisy
This one is for X. Just a quick reminder of how utterly lame the argument over the House Majority leadership really is in light of the re-election of the “segregationist” to the minority whip position.
Hoyer defeats Murtha for #2 Dem spot
It appears the vote was 149 to 86 in favor of Hoyer. Personally I think this was the right thing for House Democrats to do as Murtha obviously had way too much baggage. The political talk shows are trying to spin this as a loss for Nancy Pelosi but I don’t see how. Sure she put her support behind Murtha but now that he lost the debate is over. No one will give a damn come January who she supported with the exception of Murtha who will now be indebted to her and have to vote for her governmental reform legislation.
Bottom line, Hoyers victory represents a victory for the American people.
Where are the brigades?
Just saw this over at Steve Gilliard’s blog, from the Guardian:
Point one of the strategy calls for an increase rather than a decrease in overall US force levels inside Iraq, possibly by as many as 20,000 soldiers. This figure is far fewer than that called for by the Republican presidential hopeful, John McCain. But by raising troop levels, Mr Bush will draw a line in the sand and defy Democratic pressure for a swift drawdown.
The reinforcements will be used to secure Baghdad, scene of the worst sectarian and insurgent violence, and enable redeployments of US, coalition and Iraqi forces elsewhere in the country.
20,000 more US troops to Baghdad are a drop in the bucket. Assuming Baghdad’s population is 5.8 million people, that is an increase in the counterinsurgent force of 3.5 counterinsurgents/thousand residents. When I first wrote about Operation Forward Together, the counterinsurgent ratio of the planned for force was roughly 13 counterinsurgents per 1,000 residents. This number was predicated upon the designated Iraqi Army and police units actually showing up for duty. They did not do that.
So as we see unicorns prance down Haifa Street, and the Iraqi Army shows up as a combat ready and loyal to a unified, non-sectarian national government in Baghdad, the maximum counterinsurgent ratio, even with this one last surge is roughly 16.5 counterinsurgents per 1,000 residents. That sounds like a lot. But it is not. The US Army has repeatedly noted that stability operations, which are less manpower intensive than active counter-insurgeny operations, need a higher force ratio. The British were able to put down the Malay Insurgency and the IRA with force ratios approaching 20 counter insurgents per 1,000 population. So I believe an extra three or four brigades for a one year tour in Baghdad will just be exposing 20,000 more US soldiers to a high risk of death, permanent injury and PTSD without any relevant probability of success.
More pragmatically, the relevant question is where do these three or four brigades come from? General Pace recently made some comments about the desired force posture for the US military:
Pace said the benchmark he’d like to see on the active force is a one-year deployment, followed by two years at home station before deploying again. For Guardsmen and reservists, the ideal would be five years at home between one-year deployments, he said.
Efforts under way are helping make this goal achievable,………
These initiatives will provide 18 to 19 Army brigades, as well as one or two Marine regimental combat brigades, ready to deploy at any given time. Pace said this would ensure “a sustainable tempo” for troops that matches his deployment benchmarks.
The problem for now, he said, is that current operations require 25 brigade-size units at a time.
There is a deviation between reality of a fifteen brigade force in Iraq today, along with Afghanistan, former Yugoslavia, Korea and other committments and what the force structure can deliver. More importantly, we are currently in a local minimum for force availiabilty. National Guard units were heavily used in 2004 and 2005 to provide some breathing room for the active duty formations. These National Guard units should not be available for another two to three years. The activte duty forces are shouldering the vast majority of the combat load right now.
The deviation from desired and actual availability of forces is being addressed in a couple of different ways. The most public is the extension of two extra brigades to spend fifteen or sixteen months in Iraq to provide some surge capacity. The more common, but slightly quieter method that the Pentagon is using to find extra brigades is to dramatically reduce ‘dwell’ time. Units get home from Iraq, send their equipment to the depots for maitenance, go on leave, and then get ready to go back to Iraq a year later now. Finally, the National Guard is being prepared to send at least four combat brigades back to Iraq at least one year earlier than these units had anticipated. The Marine Corps Reserve is also being asked to send combat units back to Iraq for a second combat tour. These steps are being taken because there are no uncommitted and rested combat formations available.
These extraordinary measures are being taken on the assumption that the baseline force is roughly fifteen brigade equivilants with the occassional short term deviation. Finding three or four brigades for the LAST BIG PUSH [h/t Kevin Drum] is fantastical at best. These units can be found in the following manner:
- Extend the tours of four or five brigades for an extra six months while moving their replacements in on time or a little ahead of schedule.
- Crunch the dwell time of all active duty US based formations to less than 1 year, and send these tired units back to Iraq.
- Mobilize four or more additional National Guard brigades beyond the four that have already been notified for early deployments. This means National Guard units will have only thirty to thirty-six months of rest between deployments.
- Drawdown the end strength in Afghanistan or extend current units tours by six to twelve months. Then shift the units slotted as replacements for Afghanistan to go to Iraq.
- Pull out of Yugoslavia entirely and send the 1.5 low tier National Guard brigades that are commited to that mission to Iraq.
- Pray for unicorns.
Page A29? Are you kidding?
Look what showed up on page A-29 of today’s Washington Post.
CIA Acknowledges 2 Interrogation Memos
Papers Called Too Sensitive for ReleaseAfter years of denials, the CIA has formally acknowledged the existence of two classified documents governing aggressive interrogation and detention policies for terrorism suspects, according to the American Civil Liberties Union.
Gee, I hope the new majority in the 110th Congress had the patience to read that far.