Here we go again

It is amazing how fast the wardrums against Iran are beating.  Just
this morning CNN was breathlessly reporting that Iranian special forces
were behind the snatch and grab operation in Karbala that killed 5 US
soldiers.  Quietly and quickly they noted that this was just a theory
with minimal evidence beyond the fact that the raid was well planned
and conducted.  And then they went straight back towards how
sophisticated the Iranian operation may have been.  The news is heating
up and more examples are popping up.

Via the Spork in the Drawer, is this article in the LA Times on Iran:

The efforts could include more forceful patrols by Air Force and Navy
fighter planes along the Iran-Iraq border to counter the smuggling of
bomb supplies from Iran, a senior Pentagon official said……

Thomas G. McInerney, a retired Air Force lieutenant general who
advocates military strikes in Iran, said U.S. planes along the border
could be better used to keep bomb-making materials out of Iraq.

"We know they are doing this. Why do we accept it?" McInerney said. "For every [improvised explosive device] that goes off in Iraq, a bomb should go off in Iran."  [Emphasis added.]

  My buddy Cernig repeatedly notes that there is minimal evidence of significant evidence of Iranian smuggling of weapons into Iraq.  Instead most weapons are either manufactured locally, being bought on the black market, stolen from Iraqi government armories, creatively lost by militia members and found by fellow militia members, or recovered from the vast number of unguarded ammunition dumps. 

British forces that have been operating on the Iraq-Iran border in an anti-smuggling/border security mission are seeing next to no evidence of significant smuggling activities in their sectors.  And these units are light infantry units that can actually patrol and cover ground.  The United States knows that occassional aerial reconnascance flights are unlikely to detect or deter any small scale smuggling activities, so unless there are multiple dozen truck convoys going across the Iraq-Iran border carrying visible rocket launchers, these flights will do nothing to stop the small scale smuggling that exists.  Instead, they are most likely another provocation and potentiallity of ‘going off course’ will be a constant potential ratcheting of tensions between the United States and Iran.

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