Parsing Polls: Obama Overtakes Hillary; America Really Wants the War Over

Democratic Primary:

According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Ill. Senator Barak Obama has overtaken NY Senator Hillar Clinton in the race for the 2008 Democratic Primary. The lead, only two points, is statistically insignifcant on its own, but does mark the first time that the Hillary has slipped from the number one spot in the polls.

The difference comes from independents who are likely to vote in the Democratic Primary, which means that any lead that the freshman Senator may currently be enjoying over Hillary is as of right now shaky if one makes the logical assumption that Democrats are more likely to vote in the Democratic Primary as opposed to Independents.

Still, this is consistent with what we know and have seen thus far in the race. One aspect of the contest that has gotten a fair amount of ink is growth factors. Hillary, having been on the national political stage for about a decade and a half now is well known to the voting populace, and her supporters and detractors are for the most part stuck in place. Many political analysts have predicted that we will see little to no growth or decline in support of Hillary’s campaign as a result.

With Obama, however, he has only been on the national stage for about three years now, and even at that, his entrance was during the 2004 Democratic National Convention, a great platform for political junkies, but no where near having the far reaching publicity as being first lady for eight years (Insert your GLBT joke here). What this means is that there is far more room for growth in support for Obama as more people come to learn who he is.

This idea has been born out thus far in the polls as well. As we can see from this graph, Sen. Clinton has remained relatively steady in her support, while Sen. Obama has been on a sharp rise since the beginning of the campaign.

War Funding Legislation:

In other polling news, America is really really really serious about ending our occupation of Iraq as evidenced of the fifty two percent who want Bush to quit his silly posturing and just sign the damn bill being sent to him this week.

Over half, wow. The President is now telling a majority of Americans to go screw themselves. What this means, however, is that while Bush may veto this bill, as time progresses, America will want more drastic action, and I think it is pretty safe to say that they will want MORE bills calling for our pull out.

It is also pretty safe to say that Bush’s numbers will sink yet again after signing the veto, and now wouldn’t it be nice if we had a president that paid attention to the polls just a little?

As George Will said yesterday, “Congress has voted to end the war in Iraq, which means the war will come to an end…”

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