Captain Ed On Hillary

Since I seem to be having a Mr. M in Conservative Blogdom day today, why not keep it going? Strangely enough, I managed to find myself almost ninety percent in agreement with Captaid Ed of Captain’s Quarters in this post about Hillary Clinton’s inevitability.

I will vote for Hillary if nominated (correction, as things stand if and WHEN nominated), though I would really prefer her not be nominated at all. There is an arrogance to the woman and her campaign that can be very offputting to a lot of voters. And the polls have largely born out what I and many others have been saying from the start. She’s going to start with a large amount of support as the biggest name on the Democrat side of the race, but she’s not going to pick up many gains.

People have, for the most part, made up their mind about Hillary, so whether she would be good for the country or not, she shows the least amount of potential in a general election. Meanwhile, as is expected of any politician, people are going to slowly fall out of step with her as people become disillusioned with the campaign. This is essentially true for anyone who runs for public office, and the name of the game is to pickup more than you lose, so while she may have the nomination on a lock, she’s going to head into the general election at a disadvantage.

But I’m not going to side with Ed on the rosy scenario he paints for the chances of his Republican hopefuls. For one, never underestimate Hillary. The Clinton unelectability meme has been running rampant on our side of the aisle for years too, not just over on the right, and yet she still manages to soar over her competition without a care in the world.

Her campaign is, also, hermetically sealed tight. Compare this to Obama’s campaign which seems to leak a negative headline about once every two weeks, and John Edwards who manages to gaffe himself pretty regularly as well. In contrast, Hillary has had virtually no missteps from her machine, and she has even weathered two large profile books that paint her in a negative picture without showing a chink in her armor.

Hate her or love her, what Hillary Clinton is showing this early in the game is that she knows how to play the game, and probably play it better than anyone on either side of the aisle. She may lack the raw communication abilities of her husband or the Gipper, but her campaign discipline is second to none.

And what about that good ol’ charisma and charm that seems so important in today’s politics? She not the best, I’ll give you that. But with the exception of the Fox debate, I’ve watched all the debates religiously and liveblogged them (and before anyone implies it, the thing with the Fox debate was not a bias against fox, or at least a personal bias. I’m not a fan of Fox news, but the computer I had access to at the time wasn’t compatable with Fox’s media player, and I couldn’t watch it on television). One thing I’ve noticed in Hillary is that while she is not the most charismatic, she definitely is not the least.

Even me, who has believed from day one that this was the wrong time for her to try to run for president, found myself fooled during the last debate into thinking she could go all the way, and considering I’m backing a different horse and am against a Clinton campaign for political reasons, that is indeed saying something.

As I mentioned to Fester in a pleasant political conversation a while ago, despite what anyone says, she’s a tough, tough woman (not my exact wording, but… nevermind), and I think when it comes to the main event, she’s going to show the charisma that is needed, and ultimately, she’s definitely going to prove to her opponent just how tough she can be.

So Ed is right, there are some rocky waters ahead for the Democrats on their way to the White House, but I don’t think that the picture for a Republican upset is going to be as rosy as he paints.

In the end, what I occasionally like to do is just talk to people who don’t give two cents about politics. It’s totally unscientific, but at the same time, it can be as effective as a pulse measurement as any poll, particularly polls this early in the race. The general consensus is that a Republican will not be elected to the White House next year, particularly not one that endorses staying in Iraq.

Those conversations I had proved prophetic in 2005 when Tim Kaine was elected governor of Virginia, and again in 2006 when Democrats took control of both the Senate and the House. So if the people say the Republicans don’t have a chance in 2008, I’ll toss my hat in with them.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Connect with Facebook