Fester’s Death Pool

Fester’s got a deliciously interesting question posed by an equally morbid title, and it’s all about Horse Race. How am I not supposed to be fascinated, and respond?

The question:

I’ll be shocked if Biden and Dodd are still actively campaigning by Christmas. Kucinich will go on until after Super Tuesday, Gravel should be done soon but who else [will] drop when?

And the answer(courtesy yours truly):

Very interesting question. I don’t think McCain’s gonna drop so soon either, but for probably a simpler reason than what you got up. Simply put, I still see the old guy as a tough SOB. I think he’s gonna strip down his campaign to bare bones, and walk from one stump speech to the next before he finally throws in the towel.

Still, he’s also not sitting too pretty in money either. Check out Memeorandum, and you got a headline running around saying his campaign is struggling to collect 3 million dollars by the end of the second quarter. This is “the system is blinking red” bad.

But like I say, he’s going to hobble along on two nickels if he has to and thinks he has a shot. Which he does, albeit a VERY slim one. One thing I’ll say for him, is of the big three, I see him crumpling to the Thompson effect last.

That being said, who’s going to drop and when? I dunno. I think you’re right on with Gravel, and hopefully someone can inject enough sanity in Kucinich to get him to back down too. Dodd might not make thanksgiving, he just can’t get traction, but Biden’s a tough kid too, and may hang on until voters hit the polls. Richardson? Despite two abysmal debate performances, he’s getting traction, particularly in early voting states, so look for him to at least wait long enough to see if he can’t make a decent showing in Iowa, or New Hampshire. I’m not sure he’ll last much longer than that.

Of the Goppers… Even trickier. Huckabee’s actually making very slow progress and is now leading the lowered tiered candidates. His one vote at a time gambit actually seems to be working. Romney’s got the money and support to hang until voting, and I think if McCain can get ANY kind of traction he’ll be there when the polls open too. Brownback will go the way of Dodd and around the same time I expect, and look for late this fall to early winter for a lot of the other nameless Goppers to drop too.

Of course, my view on that part of the field is pretty non insightful as I can’t pick most those yahoos out of a lineup.

But an interesting animal is Ron Paul. He’s got nothing in the polls, probably nothing in fundraising, but check out the headlines. Ron Paul tops even Obama And Hillary in website visits. Couple this with the fact that all those unscientific web polls following the primaries? He does considerably well on those.

Which leads me to believe there is this underlying netroots movement waiting to burst forth in support of him. With news that Republican voters are starting to change their stance on the Iraq War, it is possible that we could see some noticable (noticeable, not necessarily significant) gains for the libertarian, and he may just get enough traction to push him to the polls as well.

Yeah… Horse Race! And… there’s more to come… oh god… think I’m drooling.

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  1. GOP Candidate Poll Shifts; Still Too Early » Comments From Left Field - [...] put, McCain may not have a shot, but as I said way back in June, he’s a tough SOB,…

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