I Sometimes Know What I’m Talking About, Poll Shows

It’s now been a month since NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg declared he was casting off the shackles of the Republican party, his declaration of independance sounding almost as much of a presidential dry run as it did a statement that he no longer finds himself in parallel with the ideals of his party.

I remember at the time that I had said that this would, in all likelihood, benefit the Democrats, Bloomberg taking much of his share fromt he Republican candidate, and not the Democratic one. This would, I continued to posit, be particularly true if he chose Senator Hagel as his running mate.

Contrary to this, though, a quick spin around the conservative blogosphere would show that not everyone agreed with my unbiased synopsis. Bloggers and Commentors alike were excited about Bloomberg as a spoiler at conservative oases such as QandO and AceHQ; the gains he made would have to come from the Hillary or Obama.

I sort of second guessed myself. I divorce myself, to a degree, from my own political leanings when I analyze horse race; I don’t see the usefulness of bringing what you want to happen to the table in trying to figure out what is going to happen. At the least, it can do little but give you false hope, and at the most it could prevent you from seeing the landscape clearly and therefore hampering decision making processes on what to do next.

So where had my logic gone wrong?

Thanks to a Quinnepac poll today, it seems my logic has not gone wrong. In fact, the poll clearly shows that in mythical match ups with Bloomberg running as an independent, Democratic candidates become stronger in all important Florida. In fact, Bloomberg entering the race would give steal enough votes from Giuliani to give Hillary a win in the state where she would lose in a two person race.

Ah… seems I was right. All is well with the world again.

Actually, I don’t think Bloomberg is going to run. He’s made it clear that he will not run unless he knows he can win, and right now, there isn’t a poll around that will say he has an appreciable chance. I think it far more likely he will run for governor of New York. If he has his eye set on the White House, this would give him the executive experience that has been tested to be successful in White House bids as opposed to mayor of a city which is just now having a dry run. Also, as an independent, he would have the benefit of running against whomever does win next year’s election as opposed to taking the backseat to a party colleague.

This could end up being a big thing. While I think many people believe that everything will turn into sunshine and roses the moment Bush leaves office, nothing could be further from the truth, and the long hard battle of fixing all the things he’s left broke could result in the new president suffering from dismally low approval ratings. Congress too may fall to new lows.

The point being this, if you think the mood is right for a third party candidate, just wait until we are faced with America’s impatience at the effort of undoing the damage Bush has done.

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