It’ll Take A Miracle

With the announcement of the announcement that Fred Thompson will finally join the campaign not long behind us, and the real announcement supposedly coming in the very very near future, it’s time to get serious about Fred getting serious.

This morning, WaPo’s Chris Cillizza asked the question this morning, does the polling data suggest that Fred has waited too long to jump in with the rest of the candidates?

So what gives? Thompson’s continued strong standing in national polling reinforces the idea that for most voters the race is yet to begin, and Thompson’s high name recognition — thanks in part to his television and movie roles — continues to make him a serious player in the race. In Iowa and New Hampshire, however, where voters are paying the closest attention to the race at the moment, Republicans don’t yet view Thompson as their party’s savior.

As we have said before, presidential campaigns require substantial organization. Thompson’s poll numbers show he still has a chance at the nomination, but the real test is not where his poll numbers are but whether he can build effective campaign organizations in the early primary states and compete against the already established Giuliani and Romney efforts.

If organization is going to be what saves the day for the apparent savior of the Republican party, then all of camp Fred should probably choose now to start sweating bullets if they aren’t already.

Originally scheduled to announce around the Fourth of July, the non campaign has been plagued with missteps, gaffes, but most importantly, constant realignments of his organization.

In fact, the last few months have looked less like a game of campaign shake ups, and more like a game of musical chairs.  Sometimes senior staffers would be released or resign less than a few weeks after being hired on in the first place.

And now, with his supposed announcement merely hours away, we get news that there’s to be yet another change up in the campaign as it supposedly moves away from non experienced personnel to those who have been tested in previous campaigns.

This can hardly be a good thing.  As mentioned the other day, the window for Fred Thompson to make a serious go of it is not particularly wide, and if he can’t really shine as a candidate within the next month, there’s more than a good chance that he’s sunk as a candidate.

And he’s going to be going through this particularly trying period as a new candidate at a time when Romney and Huckabee are making serious gains within the campaign, and Rudy still seems to have a death grip on the top spot.  Along with that, he’s going to be taking these well established organizations head on with a staff that has been shaken to the point of dizziness.

In short, I don’t like Fred’s chances.


I don’t like Fred which means I LOVE his chances.

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