Guiliani’s Doomed Campaign

If you have watched cable news or read any of the national papers in the past several weeks you would be hard pressed to find anyone that is not already predicting a Rudy Guiliani vs. Hillary Clinton general election. In large part, at least on the Guiliani side of the equation, this is due to the national polling numbers that show Rudy way out ahead of the pack. Unfortunately for the little mayor who could, these numbers mean very little when it comes to reality.

The question I have for all of the pundits is this; regardless of how well Rudy is polling nationally, how exactly do we square this with the few nasty little road blocks in the way of his nomination, namely the Primaries?

Let me play this out a bit.

As it stands today, the first primary is set for Iowa on January 3, 2008. If nothing changes dramatically in the Iowa landscape between now and then Rudy will be handed his first resounding defeat at the hands of Mitt Romney who is currently 14 points ahead of Rudy and Mike Huckabee who are in a statistical tie for second.

If this plays out the way it appears, the two big stories will be Romney’s win followed by Huckabee’s strong showing…Rudy is the loser. This will most certainly become the story that sweeps through the news cycles for the next few days until the next primary which we expect will be New Hampshire (they are current in a TBD status).

In New Hampshire Rudy is looking at what could be another resounding defeat at the hands of Romney who today leads the mayor by seven points or so.

Once again, the news cycle continues to roll with the story of Romney’s powerful wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. The discussion turns to his deep pockets and strong ground campaign apparatus. As this story churns through a couple news cycles we can imagine Rudy becoming a bit desperate. He makes some not so funny comments about Romney’s positions, try’s hopelessly to recapture the news cycle with some 9/11 references and hopes that he can hold the lead he currently has in the next primary state, Michigan.

Sadly, if you look at the graph above Rudy is already plummeting in Michigan so the chances of him still holding the 2 point lead he has now are somewhere between slim and none.

Ok, so you get the picture right? How the hell does Rudy’s campaign not plummet to earth like Skylab after three successive early state losses of this nature? Three losses that will be the ONLY news from January 3 through to his first and best chance at a win in South Carolina on January 26. Personally I don’t think it can happen especially when you factor in the media feeding frenzy that will most certainly surround his dying bloated carcass for a full three plus weeks.

So hey Rudy, you had better get out there and give us a few more nouns, verbs and 9/11’s or you may end up having to spend the rest of 2008 explaining to pundits how you became the Howard Dean of the Republican Party.


16 Responses to “Guiliani’s Doomed Campaign”

  1. I have no rebuttal (yet). That’s damn good analysis.

  2. matttbastard says:

    How dare you puncture the hot air of conventional wisdom with sharp, piercing facts. You’re gonna make Chris Matthews cry.

  3. Justin says:

    I love it when you guys get things right. We’ve been saying this all along for the past 6 months. Kudos to you! See you in the General Election


  4. Mick Arran says:

    Gawd he’p us.

    Having suffered under Mitt when he was our Gov, I shudder to think of the mess he’ll make if he wins. He’s better than Rudy, but that’s like saying that being shot in the head is better than being boiled in oil. One’s more painful than the other but you’re dead either way.

  5. xranger says:

    Keep using 9/11 as the punch line in a joke.

    America loves that…

  6. They sure do don’t they X.

  7. May I add that I am not using 9/11 as the punchline of a joke, I am using Rudy’s inability to say anything other than 9/11 as the punchline of a joke. It is sad to say that you appear no different than any of the other moths attracted by the weak little light of fear. Good luck with that one.

  8. xranger says:

    Get a grip.

    You’re quoting Joe Biden’s line, and it was indeed used as a joke.

    Some of us don’t find that a laughing matter.

    Spin away…

  9. I wonder if you realize who needs to get a grip.

    Repeating 9/11 over and over is a ridiculous attempt at scaring the population into supporting the little mayor. The fact that it has worked on you aside, it is a joke and has been recognized as such by two thirds of the population.

  10. xranger says:

    I never said I support Rudy.

    Once again, and I’ll type reeaaallll slow: I don’t appreciate the use of 9/11 as the punch line of a joke. I have a son fighting this war, and the memory of 9/11 is still strong in our family. Rest easy tonight – others are doing the hard work of fighting terrorism.

    Hey Fat Rat Bastard-Child:

    Shut the fuck up.

  11. matttbastard says:

    My mistake – ’twas actually a desperate 911 call for a waaaambulance.

    Who knew clutching pearls too tightly could result in a hernia?

    (The hidden holocaust of self-righteous injury: coming soon to Dateline: NBC.)

  12. xranger says:

    You never make any sense at all.

    Good addition to this blog. 🙂

    [mb: I’m going to be charitable and presume that was a brain fart, not a racial slur. Regardless, scrubbed.]

  13. matttbastard says:

    “I don’t know why you want to tell me
    When I’m right or when I’m wrong
    It’s the same thing, in your mind, the only time
    I’m right is when I play along”

  14. xranger says:

    Racial slur?



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