Clinton Kool-Aid

At the beginning of the primary season, the Obama campaign made a slew of rookie mistakes that had me on the edge of giving him up for (politically) dead.  I always agreed with his overall message, and would continue to support him, but I thought he was a done tom turkey for this go.

Now, as we draw closer to the day when voters begin choosing their candidate for the Democratic nomination, it is beginning to look as though the “grizzled veteran” Hillary Clinton is prone to rookie mistakes.

This very latest comes to us by way of the always excellent Chris Cillizza who informs us that at the time Obama was picking up a key endorsement from Carol Shea Porter (D N.H.), the Clinton gang were busy holding an emergency conference call to tout, of all things, Mrs. Clinton’s greater electability over Mr. Obama.

The poll Chris cites as the inspiration behind this new push to paint Hillary as more electable comes with one very important caveat.  Yes, people do think that Hillary Clinton is the more electable candidate, but a much more significant base of data suggests otherwise.

Spearheading this base of knowledge is the recently released CNN poll which shows that in hypothetical match ups, John Edwards actually manages to perform the best against Republicans, with Obama coming in second, and Hillary floating in at a dismal third.

Now, remember, polling trends are always much more important than individual polls, and herein is the base of knowledge of which I speak.  Observe:

ATrialHeatsALL600.png

(h/t pollster)

Now, Edwards coming out on top could be real, or, if we observe the data above which is collected from many different polls over time, is probably a little of that statistical noise.  However, Obama performing better in the General Election than Hillary is about par for the course.

I’ve said it time and again, and I’m repeating it now, the electability argument clearly goes to Obama who has a broader crossover appeal not because of his policies, but because of his governmental philosophy.

I have no idea what the Clinton camp is thinking on this issue; they’re just begging for someone to, you know, point out the fact that polling data consistently shows Obama performing better than Clinton in the General Election.  Right now, the only thing that could make the electability argument for Hillary is if she stomps through the primaries, and polling data and her own campaign’s performance over the past few weeks all point to the exact opposite happening.

But then, I guess this is what happens when the Kool-Aid gets mixed this strong.

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  1. Clinton’s Electability Risk » Comments from Left Field - [...] Yesterday I talked a little bit about Hillary’s renewal of the electability argument, specifically that Obama doesn’t have it. …

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