Giuliani Implosion Imminent?

It feels sort of strange.  For much of the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was the clear frontrunner, and I had quite a bit of fun at his expense.  Let’s face it, Rudy was an easy target.  He was an easy enough target to where I predicted his campaign would implode, it was just a matter of when.

I really hoped he would at least last until the General Election but that’s beginning to look less and less likely.

A new WSJ/NBC Poll has Giuliani losing his national lead, dropping to a tie with Mitt Romney.  Right off the bat, something smells a little bit about this poll; Pollster’s trends don’t credit Romney with that much national support in the trend analysis, lending some credence to the idea that the WSJ poll is mere noise.  On the other hand, the 20% national support in the WSJ poll is pretty close to what we should expect.

And what to expect?  The foundation upon which Giuliani entered the race was not particularly strong to begin with.  He was running a primarily foreign policy/national security based campaign with little traditional experience in the field.  Meanwhile, as his neoconservative message was likely to please some of the Republican base, as well as a message of fiscal conservatism, his personal life and stance on social issues would prove to be a severe liability.

On top of all that, Rudy has run  a national campaign, focusing on the big states and not the early states in the hopes that the punditry is right in thinking the pushed up schedules will minimize the effect Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina will have.

Unfortunately, with his national support hemorrhaging badly, and no hardcore ground game to lean on in the early states, the one time frontrunner is now at the head of the pack in polling numbers, but still trying to play catch up.

All of this due largely to highly negative coverage of the one time New York City mayor who has had to deal with a series of stories regarding shady business deals and scandalous behavior.  Still, it’s too early to count him out completely.  He still is on top nationally, and there’s still two weeks to Iowa during which anything can happen.  But the fact of the matter is, Rudy’s been flagging for some time now, and it’s not just the polling numbers and his past working against him; it’s momentum as well.

One Response to “Giuliani Implosion Imminent?”

  1. Emmett Grogan says:

    Giuliani downward poll glide is a reflection of the temporary vaccaum generated by the abscence of ideas, essential emptiness/void in rightist neo-con universe.Look back only a few months to the twittering media vomit about arrival of Thompson. This Gantry-Huckabee nonsense will evaporate shortly after Iowa and the self-capitalized Romney religio-non sequitor, will buy itself into the ozone, while the Leader of The Party of Order, Giuliani, will explode onto the scene for the Feb 5th coronations, propelled by announcement of Karl Rove’s keen intelligence marshalled to pick up where we were last January, when the Brookhiser/Forbes Ais of Capital endorsed their instrument, Giuliani. Remember, Mukasey pushed forward by Schumer is the talisman of the enormous spadework thay all have to do, united, as one, to prevent Bush et al, from appearing in the dock at Nueremberg,,,The Hague!

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