Florida Primary Data (Updated)

(Taking data from CNN.com)

We’re about a third of the way in, with 32% of precincts reporting for both Democrats and Republicans.  We’re looking at a lot of votes here; all totaled about 1.2 Million thus far which should put the final tally at 3.6 Million relatively evenly split between the two parties.

For the Democrats, Hillary is already projected to win, and is maintain an 18-20 point lead over Obama which is actually a smaller lead than polling data has predicted.  Also, it is important to remember that not only will Florida not award delegates, but one reason for the disparity could be that Obama honored his pledge not to campaign in Florida, while Hillary’s honoring of the same pledge is suspect at best.

How about those Republicans?  Well, as expected, McCain and Romney are neck and neck, with McCain experiencing a single point lead over Romney.  This is going to go down to the wire, and at any point the leaderboard could switch, so stay tuned.

Also, Rudy Giuliani is performing about as dismally as expected by everyone except himself (Rudy predicted he would… ahem… win Florida).  He’s currently just barely edging out Huckabee 15-14%.

(Update I): With 45% reported, McCain has opened up a three point lead over Romney, and Giuliani has done the same over Huckabee, but still can’t get out of the teens.  Actual score, McCain 35%, Romney 32%, Giuliani 16%, Huck 13%.

I wish I could say Romney still has a chance, but it’s looking less and less likely as we get more results in.

As for Democrats, Clinton has finally broken over 50% with 42% reporting, but Obama still is at 30%.  In any case, this lead is far short of both polling expectations and Obama’s win in South Carolina.

 (Update II): While I wait for more data, I’m taking a quick look at the delegate race for the Republican party.  Right now, Romney’s leading the hunt with 74, then it goes to McCain who has 40, and Mike Huckabee with 29.  For Republicans, Florida is winner take all.  That’s 57 Delegates, putting McCain at 97 if he takes the prize, or Romney at 131 if a late upset occurs.

Either way, that’s a slim lead in the overall delegate hunt where the magic number is over 2300.

Given the close proximity of this race, I continue to think that a loss for Romney here isn’t going to hurt that bad, and if he spins it right, could play as a win.

Giuliani, on the other hand… Fuggeddaboutit!  He’s outta there.

(Update III): 51% reporting and McCain’s lead has widened to four points, 35% -31%.  Rudy’s still stuck at 16%, and apparently there’s talk that he’s going to bow out and endorse McCain.  I’m not exactly sure how big of a deal this will be.  Whatever sauce Rudy had going into this contest has essentially been whittled away to virtually nothing, and he’s only got I think 2 delegates to throw McCain’s way.  Further, Giuliani’s “Strong Point”; National Security, is already McCain’s strong point, so he gets no help there either.

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