Michigan Update: Not What You Want To See If You’re A Maverick

There’s really not any hard data that I can find quite yet coming out of Michigan, but there are a couple of points of interest that could be early indicators of what we’ve got in store for later on this evening.

The first item comes from Jeralyn of TalkLeft who points out that there is virtually no wait time at polling places even in the heavily populated urban districts.  The initial slow rate of voting apparently could be blamed upon bad weather (snow), but even now that the snow has lifted, voters aren’t hopping out in droves to fill in a ballot.

The other item of interest, as hinted at by the Michigan Messenger liveblog of the voting process, is that a number of the voters are picking “uncommitted” or casting their ballot for one of the two Democrats actually on the ballot (keep in mind that neither Edwards nor Obama are on Michigan’s ballot).

So what could this possibly mean?  Well, it’s not the news that McCain wants to hear.  Remember that McCain only does better than Romney if Democrats and Independents are in the mix.  If this becomes a Republicans only affair, Romney’s got McCain by about ten points, and has a clear advantage.

With low voter turnout, it’s likely that the bulk of the turnout is going to come from those who have the biggest stake in voting; Republicans.  That there are Democrats and independents who are casting votes for the Democrats on the ticket or “uncommitted” means those votes aren’t going where McCain needs them to go.

All in all, not the best news that McCain wants to be getting right now.

Still, this thing is far from over, and one thing that must be taken into account is that a lot of folks are at work, particularly the blue collar workers whom I think would break more for McCain than Romney.  If turnout picks up heavily during or after rush hour, that I think will result in decent news for McCain.

If not, Romney just may get the win he’s seriously in need of.

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