Now This Is Interesting

While the Democratic race in Florida is all but done for, Clinton has about a twenty point advantage over Obama, the Republican race is only heating up, and no, Giuliani is not the reason.

A couple of days ago, I would have given Florida to McCain, badly wounding, but not killing completely, Mitt Romney’s presidential aspirations.  But with less than 48 hours between now and when the Florida victor should be announced, it’s looking like Mitt is making a come back.

According to a rolling Zogby poll, Mitt has pulled even with McCain after suffering from a three point deficit.  Meanwhile Giuliani, who has bet the whole farm on his performance in Florida, has continued his trajectory with the basement.

This is a helluva contest right now with the fate of Super Tuesday just about resting on Tuesday night’s outcome.  One thing is certain, though, with Romney and McCain set to take the top two spots by a decent margin, regardless of who continues on and who doesn’t, this is going to be a two man race from here on in.

As has been consistent with polling data from the beginning, McCain does better among independents and moderates, while Romney does better within the party.  Further, it seems that both men are running about even across the board of demographics which means this whole thing could hinge on voter turnout.  Low turnout favors Romney, given that low turnout usually means higher percentage of party faithfuls, and high turnout vice versa.

Now, I don’t know what the enthusiasm level is in Florida right now, so I can’t speak on that, but what I can speak on is that Tuesday’s looking to be a gorgeous day in the mid sixties to seventies without hardly a cloud in the sky.  Why did I turn into a weather man all of a sudden?

Remember Michigan.  One of the interesting things about Michigan was that it was all kinds of cold and snowy there, and turnout was relatively low, a fact that gave Romney a little nudge on his way to victory.  Romney’s not going to get much of a break on this in Florida.

But that may not matter.  If actual voting is as close as this most recent polls shows it to be, we’re looking at a squeaker in Florida, and that spells good news for Romney, and not so much for McCain.

You see, with a clear and concise victory in Florida, John McCain could feasibly knock Romney out the park.  But serving as the underdog in Florida, if Romney just barely lets McCain squeak by with a win, there will be some momentum, but not a huge amount going into Super Tuesday.

But this also goes the other way.  In other words, as long as the race stays close, no one is going to deliver a knock out blow Tuesday, and instead, the winner is going to go into Super Tuesday with some momentum at their back, just not a whole huge amount.

In other words, pay attention, this race is just getting interesting.

One Response to “Now This Is Interesting”

  1. Achene says:

    I agree with you that Romney is likely to win narrowly in Florida. He’s better financed,
    and he’s a better campaigner when the press he’s getting focuses on his business experience
    and not on his religion.

    Huckabee will still be a factor at least through February 5, because of the way that delegates
    are split in southern states if nobody wins a majority. There are three delegates per district,
    and whoever receives a plurality gets two delegates, while the second place finisher gets one
    delegate. McCain needs Huckabee to beat Romney in those districts.

    California, like Florida, has a closed primary. If Romney can eke out victories in both of those
    states, it will damage McCain severely: if he can do that to McCain in 7 days, imagine
    what the Clintons will do to him in 7 months.

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