Daily Tracker: Solidifying Leads

Gallup’s daily tracker polls are up, and the picture in both races are perhaps more clearer than they have been in a while.

On the Democratic side, what we see is the one time underdog Barack Obama is solidifying his lead over Hillary Clinton as the race for the Democratic nomination heads into the home stretch.  With a 49-42 lead nationally, this marks three consecutive days where Obama has enjoyed a lead outside the margin of statistical error.  Over the weekend, the lead did dip to within five, however the lead has returned to a seven point gap with Obama’s numbers on the rise and Hillary’s going the opposite direction.

Still, seven points is not the broadest margin, and one well within striking distance.  This gives us an opportunity to turn our eyes to the Wisconsin primary tomorow.  At this point, the closeness of the race both nationally and in Wisconsin, defy prediction.  Wisconsin is known for bucking trends, and it would seem that demographically it doesn’t favor either candidate over the other.  Also, Hillary has been contesting the state vigorously as has Obama.

It’ll be interesting to see the results tomorrow evening.

One thing is sure, if Hillary manages to win Wisconsin, it could be anybody’s ballgame, while a loss for her could prove disastrous.  Her campaign has built up Texas and Ohio to be her last stand, however; polls in Texas are all over the place, and yet, without having officially even campaigning in the state yet, Obama has observed a rapid increase in support there.

A win in Wisconsin keeps the momentum going in Obama’s direction.  The hybrid delegate selection process in Texas so far shows to be greatly in his favor,and he’s got two whole weeks to work the state for all he’s worth.  A win tomorrow increases the likelihood of a Texas win for Obama.  The bigger the win, the greater the probability.

Meanwhile, on the republican side of the ticket, we also see McCain finally increasing the gap between himself and Huck.  Not that McCain and Huckabee were ever close in the polls, however; as I’ve mentioned before I’m looking at Huckabee’s support as a kind of broad barometer to measure how successful McCain is proving to be at courting conservative voters.

Huckabee’s score is the lowest it’s been in over a week when he was on a modest surge.

It’s too early to make any definitive judgements, I wouldn’t be willing to say so without more data points for reference, but if this trend plays out, McCain could at least in some degree be on his way to unifying the conservative vote.  Or at least unifying it as much as he’s able to.

While the polls do seem to show both frontrunners solidifying their leads, the data also leaves us with more questions.  Questions we won’t be able to begin answering until tomorrow night after Returns from the primaries start coming in.

2 Responses to “Daily Tracker: Solidifying Leads”

  1. we will see if the 50% in wis is accurate

  2. szala says:

    I appreciate the concern which is been rose. The things need to be sorted out because it’s not about the individual but it can be with everyone.

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