Dreaded Exit Polls

We’ve got a little more than an hour until polls close in the crown jewel of today’s primary contests in the Democratic party, and early exit polls are reflecting the difficulty some of us have had in predicting how the Badger State would vote.

Demographically, it would appear that Obama is at a serious disadvantage in Wisconsin; mostly white, less affluent, and low college education percentages–all Clinton territory typically.

However, there is an aspect that is sort of buried in the numbers that bears paying attention.  Wisconsin would be a state that could be characterized as one of low racial diversity.  That’s to say that there’s an extremely low African American population, which, curiously enough also seems to benefit Obama.  One thing that I’ve noticed thus far in these contests is that Obama does not just do well among black voters, but in states where there are extremely few black voters he tends to do well also.  The white advantage for Clinton seems at its most potent when there is a moderate mix of African American to white voters.

But another interesting thing in the exit polling that Abinder provides us is that far more people are voting for change as opposed to experience by a factor of about two to one.  This is incredibly important as Hillary has established herself as the experience candidate.  She has also tried to portray herself as an agent of change, but I’m skeptical of how successful that has been.

Another important item to look at is that Clinton was viewed as the more unfair attacker.  This is incredibly important as this is going to be the broadest barometer we’ve seen since Hillary has launched her unfounded plagiarism attack and could be an early indicator of whether or not it’s backfired.

And if Ben Smith’s and Mike Allen’s source is credible, and the dreaded exit polls hold, that may just be the case.  Without any numbers, hard or soft, the exit polls are looking to paint a picture that again the polls leading up to the contest were off, but here, we’re looking at way off in Obama’s favor.

Of course, exit polls are as reliable as any other poll, and should be taken with a grain of salt.  But above all other indicators the unfair attacker really sticks out to me.  Hillary’s flooded the state of Wisconsin with attack ads, and if a large portion of people in Wisconsin didn’t take too kindly to them.

If that in particular holds true, this could be another blowout, and the Clintons would be extremely poor-served by keeping the full court negative press going on.  That’s not to say that they still won’t, but they would have been warned at least twice now.  Once in South Carolina, and once in the Badger State which became incredibly close to a must win for Clinton.

No Responses to “Dreaded Exit Polls”

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Ten » Comments from Left Field - [...] night as I was going through exit polls, I made particular mention of the fact that voters were, by…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Connect with Facebook