There she goes again.

I’ll be dead honest.  I often wonder if I’m toopro-Obama.  I wonder if I don’t maybe gild the lily as it were.  But the only thing I need to ease my worries is to hop on over to Taylor Marsh, and it all goes away.  I’m biased, but I’m not THAT biased!

What has she done this time?  She’s forgotten how to analyze polls, apparently.  Now, look, there’s nothing wrong with saying someone is up or down in the polls based on a single poll, or even two.  It’s not even that bad to make certain inferences.  But that’s not good for Taylor Marsh… oh no.  She gets one day with a statistical tie, and she’s off to the races.

Clinton’s ahead, her attacks are landing, everything is going great!

In truth, this is wild-eyed bias, or it’s just lazy.  But never fear, Taylor, I’m here to help you.  Look:


(Thanks Pollster)

Here’s my take; if you’re basing assumptions on very little data, use caution.  Find contrary data, and allow that to factor into your analysis.  For example, before Taylor Marsh started running off at the fingertips to write that Hillary’s tactics have been vindicated by the polls, she might have wanted to check in with Rasmussen’s daily tracker which shows her five points down, and he has had the lead since the 12th.

Or she could have checked in with Pollster, who does a lot of the groundwork for you, and aggregates the polls to come up with a statistically stronger and more reliable trend.  In this instance, we see Hillary’s stock slowly dropping while Obama’s skyrocketing.

Now, if tomorrow Gallup comes up and Hillary’s lead increases against Obama, then would be the time to start talking about how great Hillary is, but for now, Taylor should ease up on the Clinton Kool-Aid, just a touch.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Connect with Facebook