More Wisconsin Exits

This could be big.  Very big.

Naturally, I’m not a huge fan of the National Review.  Still, I will give them credit for one thing; they can get some exit polls like it’s nobody’s business.

Right now, NRO’s Campaign Spot blog is showing that Wisconsin could be a blowout, a big blowout, going in Obama’s favor by twenty points.  That would be lightyears bigger than any poll would have predicted.

So what would a sixty forty split mean?

-Obviously it should result in a health addition to Obama’s pledged delegate lead.

-It would be a sharp rebuke to the Clinton campaign’s negative efforts.  A sane campaign would take the hint after Wisconsin and South Carolina and back down a bit, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.  Every indication we’ve seen from the Clinton’s thus far would suggest that the worse things get for them, the nastier they are going to get.

-Obama is making devestating inroads in Clinton’s safe demographics.  From earlier exits I’ve seen so far, it looks like Obama’s encroaching seriously on a lot of these demographics in Wisconsin, with Hillary essentially holding ground on seniors alone.  Now, there’s not a large latino community in Wisconsin as far as I’m aware, which leaves that particular demographic a question mark for the big Texas primary/caucus coming up in two weeks.

-Obama momentum is for real.

-Obama can go toe to toe with Hillary Clinton.  A curious thing about the states that have gone since Super Tuesday is that Hillary Clinton largely ignored them.  She campaigned half heartedly in Virginia, but she had to contend with a popular governor who has been working for Obama since almost day one of the primary race.  Wisconsin is a little different.  With the changing out of the Clinton campaign manager, the Clinton camp has really charged the state, and campaigned hard.  She has no excuses or spin to fall back on if she loses here; she will have been beaten hands down and fair and square.

But again, it’s still forty five minutes until the polls close, and exits can be wrong.  But at this point, look for how long it takes to project a winner.  If this thing goes in the first few minutes following the closing of polls, look for Obama to run away with it.  If not, and it takes a few hours to get a projected winner, we’re looking at a close race, possibly even a narrow Clinton win.

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