Mud Hole

The Potomac Primary is over, and Barack Obama continued his clean sweep of Hillary Clinton, winning Virginia, Maryland, and DC.  But one thing that seems particularly relevent to me is the sheer enormity of his wins; we always knew Obama was favored to win today, but I don’t think anyone was expecting this kind of a route.

I know I wasn’t.

And this is why I continue to believe that the magnitude of Obama’s momentum has continually been under valued in the press, professional and amateur, mainstream and independent alike.  I mean, Virginia, Obama wins by 29 points and collects 21 delegatesIn Maryland, he’s so far got an 18 point lead with a little over thirty percent reporting.  Finally, in DC, he won by fifty-one points and Hillary is looking to come out of that contest with a single delegate.

‘Round these parts, that’s called stompin’ a mud hole, and you could fit an Olympic size swimming pool in the mud hole Obama just stomped in the Clinton campaign.

Further, just like in Virginia as we discussed earlier, Maryland’s exit polls are showing that Obama is not only making up ground, but winning in demographic groups that previously he’s had trouble with, most notably, women.  The writing on the wall is clear, just as was reported on NPR this evening, “This is a movement”.

We look at the states that have gone since Super Tuesday, and the thing that keeps coming back is that, yeah, Obama was expected to win, but they’ve all been absolute blowouts.  Even in Virginia and Maryland where the caucus factor was not an issue, and where Hillary and Bill both campaigned, we’re talking about thirty point margins, and Obama still has a week to campaign in Wisconsin and Hawaii to encourage a blow out there, as well as three weeks to campaign in Ohio and Texas to make up ground against these two firewall states.

Is it too early to say Hillary’s done for?  Of course it is, but to describe her presidential aspirations as anything but on the ropes and reeling would be an understatement, and we’re beginning to see whispers of the Giuliani strategy filter through.

Giuliani, you’ll remember, completely ditched the early states and stayed in Florida where he was planning on catapulting his campaign to the top of the delegate race.  Instead, he finished well behind the pack, and was declaring an end to his campaign.  What we’re seeing from the Hillary campaign is much the same.

Tonight, she’s already in Texas while Obama is campaigning in Madison Wisconsin; the message sent is received loud and clear–she’s playing Texas like Rudy played Florida.  But this just gives Obama the opportunity to run the numbers up again in Wisconsin and Hawaii, and still gives him the opportunity to campaign in Texas with a more heavily stocked warchest.

The tea leaves shouldn’t be too hard to read.  Poll analysis over the course of the Democratic primary shows one thing, the more Obama campaigns in a state, the higher his numbers go up.  This may seem rudimentary, but campaigning does not always equate to better numbers, as the Hillary camp has proven in Virginia and Maryland today, as well as South Carolina, and a handful of other states.

The short of it is, at the trajectory these campaigns are going, not only is Obama going to sweep the rest of February, he is very much poised not just to keep the delegate split in Ohio and Texas close, he’s more than capable of winning them.

Hillary can still win, mind you.  She can come up big in Texas and trip up the surge of momentum heading Obama’s way, but the demographics that she’s been relying upon are slowly starting to fail her.  <50K’s, and women most notably.  In Texas, the tale of the tape will rely heavily upon Latinos, and if Obama can figure out how to break into that demographic, Hillary will have essentially no bastions of comfort left to her.

She will be stuck in the mud hole Obama stomped for her.

Update:  Big Thanks to Nelson at the Liberal Journal for linking in.

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