Neck And Neck

Here we are, on the eve of Super Tuesday and there is an absolute plethora of polling data out there which confirms the picture that we’ve been seeing for most of this past week.  John McCain’s lead among Republicans is solidifying just about everywhere except California, and as for the Democratic Race…  wow.

One thing is for certain, just as the Giants had a helluva weekend, so too did Barack Obama.  Not only has he drawn neck and neck with Clinton nationally, but one of the biggest prizes up for grabs tomorrow, California, has not only flipped in Obama’s favor, but at least according to Zogby, he’s opened a six point lead.

The picture this paints is real simple.  Momentum, momentum, momentum.  And I’m going to tell you, Super Tuesday is going to be, for the most part, a moot point.  Hillary’s entrenched support is going to act like a buffer through Super Tuesday, preventing her from coming close to getting knocked out, and if all of these polls are pointing in the right direction, Hillary has to CRUSH Senator Obama tomorrow in order to halt all that momentum.

With Obama looking to do well in California and New Jersey, that’s simply not going to happen.  Hillary’s going to come out of Super Tuesday with a lead in delegates, but I think Obama’s coming out of Super Tuesday with the big mo, which could quite possibly be bigger.

And I think a big part of this is the biggest difference between the two campaigns.  Hillary is running a presidental campaign.  It has been known to be tight and solid, though for a few crucial months Hillary failed to keep the leash on her husband and high ranking surrogates and that hurt her.  But in the end, there’s little different between Hillary’s campaign, McCain’s campaign, or Romney’s campaign; they’re merely presidential campaigns.

The thing about the Obama is that his campaign feels like a movement, while at the same time being very much a presidential candidacy.  It is in a way a kind of marriage between the pragmatism of office, and the raw energy of activism.  And damn it all of that energy isn’t catching on.

I think I saw it in South Carolina, when Obama came to the podium to deliver his victory speech.  The crowd was chanting, “Yes We Can”, not “Obama”.  There is a powerful message there, that voting for Obama isn’t voting necessarily just for him, but for a faith in one’s self.  I overheard someone once say a vote for Obama is like promising to give America back to itself.

Yeah, the Obama campaign has elevated itself to a movement, and Ron Chusid is right.  Go over to some of the right wing blogs that featured the “Yes. We. Can.” video.  The hardcore conservatives are scared to death of this guy, because there is no way a John McCain or a Mitt Romney is stopping him, they’re not going to fare well working against millions of people shouting out with all of their heart, “Yes We Can!”  It’s simply not going to happen.

And that’s where we are in this race.  The Obama campaign has officially caught fire.  Is it enough to win him the nomination?  Sadly no.  Hillary still has control of this race, and she can still levy a hefty amount of Super Delegate strength.  But if she doesn’t put some serious distance between herself and Obama tomorrow, she too is going to be facing millions of voters chanting, “Yes We Can” and you know something?  They will too.

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