Trying To Predict Tomorrow

If the earlier states in this primary contest were difficult to prognosticate, that was nothing compared to those states that have yet to vote and mete out their delegates.  At least for the states that have already come there was a good amount of polling.  Granted the closer those polls came to actual voting day, the less reliable they seemed to be, but still, you at least got something resembling a rough sketch on how things were going to turn out.

Without significant polling data, your best choice is to start hunting through state by state demographics and trying to figure things out that way, however even there you will often find demographic data tricky to come by.

Even Chris Bowers predictions admittedly come from a scarcity of data, however, they seem to be about as accurate as predictions are likely to get at this point, and bear paying attention to.

Over the course of the next nine contest, all of which are crammed in the next five days, Obama is favored to win in each state with a toss up in Maine.  According to Bowers, Maine seems like the best place for Clinton to etch out a win between now and February 12th, however, Maine holds caucuses, something that has thus far strongly favored Obama.

The catch here is that the next five days are high risk/high reward days for the campaign.  The idea that Obama should do well through Tuesday has already been echoed quite a bit through the political sphere, which means expectations are high.  If he fails to meet those expectations by a significant amount, you’re going to start seeing some folks jump ship.

On the other hand, if he matches expectations, or even better, delivers a clean sweep, That’s going to be huge in terms of momentum, and may allow him to pull bigger shares in states like Pennsylvania, Texas, and Ohio, and actually allow him to get some separation in delegate counts between himself and Hillary.

But the bottom line is that, true or not, for at least the next five days he’s essentially the front runner.  If he shows strong, that could be the ball game.

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