GDT: Obama Lead Still Holds

While there has been some slipping, Gallup’s daily tracking poll continues to hold with a significant lead for Barack Obama.

The gap has narrowed slightly, with Obama now only holding an eight point lead nationally over Clinton, down two points from ten in yesterday’s daily tracker, but still a very significant lead. Still, as I mentioned earlier this morning, I don’t think we can rightly make any solid judgment on the state of the race based on the daily tracking poll until Wednesday.

I say this because Gallup helpfully pointed out that Obama did significantly well on an interview conducted on the 29th. Since this is a three-day rolling poll, it will take at least until Wednesday for that single interview to work its way out of the used data, and what we are shooting for here is a specific determination as to whether that single day was an actual bump, or statistical noise.

The slight dip here points to at least some statistical noise.

As for long-term repercussions: Should this be an actual net positive trend, it will continue to undermine the multiple goal posts that the Clinton campaign has attempted to establish in order to use any metric other than pledged delegates to decide who will ultimately be the Democratic nominee.

But again, nothing conclusive can really be said until Wednesday.

More from memeorandum: The Daily Dish and Wonkette

2 Responses to “GDT: Obama Lead Still Holds”

  1. Ben Keeler says:

    Well then I guess it is good for Hillary that the remaining Democratic votes will be held in individual states and not determined by a Gallup Poll.

  2. Not necessarily.

    I wanted to wait until we could verify this as an actual stable trend or not before I got in too deep into it, but the nationals do matter, and if she intends to carry on after all the primary states have gone, they still will.

    Delegates are delegates, and Hillary won’t win by delegates which means that she’s going to need a powerful argument to override the delegates in order to win the nomination while at the same time maintaining credibility with party voters. What is going to seriously undermine that is if she’s also lagging behind Obama in the polls.

    Polls are intangible, true, and you can only put so much stock in them in general, but what the Gallup Daily tracker at this point is doing is serving as a kind of barometer as to whether or not Hillary can get away with “stealing” the nomination. If she doesn’t maintain a steady and statistically significant lead over Obama after all the pledged delegates have been allocated, forget it, overturning pledged delegates is political suicide for the entire party–hand out the poison laced kool aid cuz here we go.

    There’s more to it than just that, but then I would hate to have to steal my own thunder.

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