Is Time Really On Clinton’s Side?

I think it’s quite possible that Rick Klein is actually smoking crack right about now.  He says that with six weeks left to go before the Pennsylvania primaries, time is on Hillary Clinton’s side.

This way, Klein believes, Clinton has a political millennium to build a slow and strong case that she more than Obama should be the Democratic presidential nominee.  Point seen, and ignored.

If things were to really go Hillary Clinton’s way, she would want to see the vote happen tomorrow while she still has an almost twenty point lead in the state according to some polls.  Now, with both candidates focusing their energies on this state alone, that’s the largest the gap is likely to be.

I simply don’t see how a six week break to canvass the heck out of Pennsylvania could possibly be good for the person who’s ahead in the state, not when that gives the person behind all the time in the world to catch up.  And Obama has an excellent track record of making up polling deficits with his ground game.

Keep in mind that looking back about a week ago, Obama barely got beat out in the popular vote in Texas by three points when two weeks prior he was down by double digits.  In Ohio, the deficit was considerably worse, and he still managed to shrink Hillary’s final victory margin down to ten.

This is what he was able to do in two very large states in two weeks.  Now he’s got triple the amount of time and considerably less ground to cover.

And let’s not forget how having all the time in the world helped Hillary Clinton in Iowa.

I admit that winning Pennsylvania outright is still going to be a remarkable feat for Obama to accomplish, but at this point, all he really has to do is prevent Hillary from getting the near 40% margin of victory she would need in order to be able to still have a claim to being in the delegate hunt.

That’s not exactly a difficult thing for Obama to pull off.

5 Responses to “Is Time Really On Clinton’s Side?”

  1. DM Metzger says:

    5th paragraph: defecit = deficit. Feel free to edit this comment out when you fix that.

    I’m not really sure why pundits are saying that this this 6 week gap should help Clinton. If there’s one thing this election has taught us it’s that time is on Obama’s side. In every election this primary he’s proven that, when allowed the time for focused campaigning, his numbers rise nearly daily.

    Honestly Hillary’s best shot would have been for a 50-state all-at-once primary last year. She would have won it then. The longer this goes on the worse it goes for her. Pennsylvania’s not likely to shake that trend.

    My theory? The pundits know their election horse-race ratings gold mine is coming to a close and they’re trying to drag it out with false interpretations.

  2. Thanks, I can’t believe I missed that… I’ll get on it in a few minutes.

    As for your theory, you’re definitely right, I think, and I’m going to speak to that in an interview/presentation I’m supposed to be giving tomorrow (would have done it today, but the system that they wanted me to use was not working properly). To be brutally honest, I think it is that tendency that really affected the coverage following the March 4th primaries. The actual mathematical situation did not receive nearly as much attention in the MSM as did the momentum… momentum, might I add, that’s already been largely blunted.

    so yeah, they’re in it for themselves, but I’m kinda hoping Olbermann’s special comments tonight kind of jars things a bit.

  3. Pug says:

    Actually, that poll only shows a Clinton lead of 12 points, right? That could turn into a very close race before April 22nd.

  4. Pug says:

    Another point overlooked by the media is the popular vote. In Mississippi last night, Obama got about 100,000 more votes than Clinton. In Texas on March 4th, Clinton got about 101,000 more votes. That’s a net gain, after her “huge” win, of about 1,000 votes.

  5. I was actually referencing I believe the Survey USA poll that was used to come up with that overall graph. One thing that should be pointed out though is that from what I understand, Survey USA has been thus far the most accurate of the polls.

    One thing, and I have not wanted to post this, but I’m going to get to it tonight or tomorrow is that there’s an analysis out there that has Obama losing the delegate hunt in PA by about 20-30.

    There’s still a chance that he could really turn things around in Pennsylvania, but I think we all need to be real clear eyed when we head to PA.

    Damn it all if this whole race ain’t just frustrating the crap out of me at this point.

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