GDT Update

While everyone’s scrambling to see what’s going on in Pennsylvania, it’s worth taking a breath and returning to the national polling.

After suffering from a dip where Clinton actually managed to enjoy a single day of being over Obama in the GDP by a statistically insignificant margin, the national race has returned to a ten point gap in Obama’s favor. Further, Obama has once again reached the fifty percent mark.

The significance of national polling has been minimized by many, however I maintain that the GDT is still important in at least two areas.

The first is in regards to Hillary Clinton winning the nomination without leading in pledged delegates and the popular vote. In order for that to happen, there must be a clear indication that those who have already voted don’t mind having their candidate overturned by Super Delegates. This would require essentially a prolonged statistically significant lead in national polls. Without that, there is an almost guaranteed backlash that would result from a Clinton nomination that could prove insurmountable come November.

The second deals with fundraising. Not only do shrinking national numbers translate to fewer supporters that Clinton can turn to for financial support, but they also mean that those who do support her are likely to find her too risky to donate to. Given that her campaign is already ten million dollars in debt, this becomes a very serious item to take into consideration when we look at Senator Clinton’s ability to compete in later states.

More at Memeorandum: Matthew Yglesias and Donklephant

(edited by DrGail)

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