Obama Begins To Establish Himself

I wake up this afternoon, and one of the first things that catches my eye is that my supplier has prepared for me a new fix. That’s right folks, more news from the Gallup Daily Tracker, so get your favorite delivery system ready because here we go.

Two of the three charts provided by Gallup today are very interesting to me, though I should still provide the usual disclaimers. First, this is only a single poll, and not to be taken as gospel. Second, I believe what we are looking at here is only the beginning of a trend which means that there is plenty of time and room for us to learn that these are not in fact trends at all.

Public service disclaimers out of the way, let’s take a look at what we have for the Democratic race, shall we?

Now this is incredibly interesting because what we are seeing is initially an aberration from what I have been using as a model trend. That model trend comes about a week prior and follows the aftermath of a single survey that was greatly in Obama’s favor.

In the model trend, which began on March 29th, a possibly statistical aberrant survey gave Obama a temporary bump in the polls. As it worked its way through the three day rolling process, Obama’s lead dropped a little while Hillary continued to fluctuate at around the same level. Thus the race closed back up to the point of being just within the margin of error.

But what today’s trend is showing is that this bump is not following the same pattern as the March 29th bump. Hillary’s numbers have depressed while Obama has essentially maintained his trend at its current levels.

This becomes even more interesting when we look at how Obama is faring against McCain in a hypothetical general election match up:

Though still within the margin of error, Obama is slowly starting to open up against John McCain.

Both trends seem to point to this being the beginning of a longer and more prolonged shifting of the trends in Obama’s favor–he’s possibly beginning to establish himself not only as the Democratic party’s front-runner, but possibly making a move to be the front-runner for the General Election as well. What I find interesting is that this is happening at a point where there are neither debates nor votes to provide a significant impact upon the dynamics of the race.

That will all change soon enough, though.

More from Memeorandum: The Daily Dish, Talking Points Memo and TPM Election Central

(edited by DrGail)

One Response to “Obama Begins To Establish Himself”

  1. Katiec Pekin, IL says:

    Although polls have not been too reliable am hoping this one is.
    It is good to see that the American voters are looking beyond the
    media sensationalizing and realizing Barack Obama will be OUR
    only true leader.
    Go Barack Go Democrats

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