Polls, Polls, Polls

Yesterday I posited that the Gallup Daily Tracker may be showing us a situation where Barack’s stance as the front-runner may finally be solidifying, and this solidification may result in Obama’s performance with McCain improving over time.

Ah, if only my new drug would just behave once in a while, I would be so much happier.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not as though the new Daily Tracker showed Obama dropping all of a sudden.  Quite the opposite; Obama is still holding even with McCain while he has extended his lead over Hillary to an impressive nine points.  Nine points is a good bump, but this passage gives us cause for prudence in our analysis:

Obama had a particularly strong showing in Sunday’s interviewing, and it will remain to be seen if he is able to enlarge and sustain a margin of victory in the days ahead. Two events have been in the news in recent days that, in theory, could affect Democrats’ support levels for their two candidates. Bill and Hillary Clinton released their tax returns for the last eight years on Friday, reporting that they made over $100 million during that time period. Sunday Clinton’s chief campaign strategist, Mark Penn, resigned his position after reports that the public relations firm of which he is president had a conflict of interests with the Clinton campaign.

This is strangely reminiscent of last week where a strong survey for Obama on March 29th resulted in a ten point gap that eroded to the three point lead he enjoyed over Clinton once that survey had worked its way through the system.

But the two stories that Gallup referenced do promise to have an appreciable effect.  The first, Clinton’s tax returns, are likely to never have a fully catastrophic effect, I believe, barring something excessively controversial.  On the other hand, Mark Penn’s reduction in his role as a part of the Clinton campaign is likely to play differently among groups of people.  For bloggers and pundits, there’s likely to be an opinion that this is good and Penn was killing Clinton anyway, or that it’s not good enough because he’s still acting as her pollster.  For somewhat informed people for whom trade and unions is a big deal (ie. those in the rustbelt), might take issue with Penn’s involvement with the free trade deal he was trying to facilitate with Colombia, which may ultimately hurt Clinton.

But for Joe and Jane Sixpack, I think this story is going to play largely as a process story of the Clinton campaign undergoing two major campaign shake ups in just over a month which will lead to more questions as to the integrity of the campaign.

In general, I would fully expect this gap to narrow over the next few days until Sunday’s interview works its way out of the system, but I also think that Obama should finish off a little bit, one or two points) higher than Clinton overall.

In other news, a recent North Carolina poll shows Obama with a whopping 23 point lead over Clinton.  I find this particularly interesting considering that Bill Clinton has said that NC is yet another do or die state.  With these numbers, I am very interested to see if the Clinton campaign holds onto the concept or starts playing the expectation game there as they have in other states.

Whether her campaign endorses Bill’s view or runs away from it could very well be indicative of Mrs. Clinton willing to cede defeat or Mr. Clinton simply going off message.  We’ll see, but not soon enough.

More from memeorandum:  The Daily Dish, Washington Wire, American Research Group, The Moderate Voice, TPM Election Central, iPol and Donklephant

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Connect with Facebook