Pulling Away, Again

Today voters head to the polls in Pennsylvania to decide whom they will endorse for the Democratic nomination. For all intents and purposes, it is looking as though Hillary will win, and the only real question tonight is by how much. But as I made mention yesterday, there is life after Pennsylvania, and for a glimpse of what that life holds for us, we return to the national polls.

Among all the arguments of electability swirling around the Democratic primary, one argument should not be ignored; Obama has an uncanny knack for bouncing back from whatever his opponents and fate seems to throw his way. Over the course of the past six weeks, Obama has come under fire for a lynching of a debate, an out of context quote that his opponents attempted to use to label him as an elitist, his former pastor who was also taken out of context and used by his opponents to paint Obama as a racist, and having one of the most high profile members of his own party say that he was not ready to serve as Commander in Chief when the Republican nominee, John McCain, was.

That sounds like a devastating six weeks, right?

Yeah, about that. Much like Gallup’s Daily Tracker showed Obama bouncing back from the latest fiasco to reclaim a statistically significant lead yesterday, a USA Today/Gallup poll was just released that shows Obama opening up a ten point lead against Clinton.

But what has got to be even worse news for Senator Clinton is this, “Democrats are divided, too, about whether the contest has become too negative. Among the half who say it has, 43% blame Clinton, 3% blame Obama. Fifty-three percent blame both equally.” That is simply astonishing; ninety six percent blame Clinton either in whole or in part for the negative tone of this campaign.

As I’ve said in the past, national polls are important because they provide an indicator as to how significant the backlash will be should Hillary Clinton win by alternative means. But in light of recent events, there are two more reasons why I believe these polls are significant.

The first has to do with the stat about negativity. Hillary Clinton is going to find it incredibly difficult to make up ground or even win in some of the states where Obama is leading comfortably if she is going to be associated with this much negativity.

The second is based upon the knowledge that the Clinton campaign is in debt and not raising nearly as much money as Senator Obama. In order for her campaign to stay afloat, she is going to need monetary support, and if her numbers keep dipping down, donors are going to dry up because A) there will be fewer around, and B) those that are sticking with Clinton are going to continue to see her campaign as a risky investment and thus be less likely volunteer to replenish her coffers.

So after a grueling six weeks where’s Obama? Pulling away, again. Not bad.

For funsies, it’s worth mentioning that Bush has broken the record for the highest disapproval rating of all time; 69%. Come on people! We got less than a year to get him to break Truman’s record low approval rating of 23%. I know we can do it.

Edited by Kathy

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