At Fifty, Down to Ten

At fifty percent reporting, Obama has narrowed Clinton’s lead in Indiana down to ten points.

This is a significant drop from the eighteen point deficit earlier, and may be the reason why most networks continue to refuse to call it.  Still, this is not where Obama wants to be.  He doesn’t have to win Indiana, but allowing Clinton a double digit victory is not good.

For the record, given that North Carolina is looking to be an unforeseen blowout that wasn’t even predicted by polling prior to the latest inflamation of the Wright controversy, mathematically there wouldn’t be much of a detriment letting Clinton win Indiana by double digits, but there is are significant psychological, media-based, and spin based repurcussions to be faced should the deficit be that high.

UPDATE: at 51%, the gap is now narrowed down to eight points.

My guess as to what we’re seeing right now, and this is totally a wild guess, is that in rural parts of Indiana where I had heard voting was not as high as it was in the urban areas, those polling places may have been quicker to report, and were obviously much more in favor with Clinton.  If I’m right, the more crowded urban areas should be coming in now, and if they went heavily for Obama, that could explain why Clinton’s lead is currently under assault.

Well, in the space of an hour, this went from being a potential blowout for Clinton to a nailbiter.  Stay tuned, we’ll have more as it comes.

2 Responses to “At Fifty, Down to Ten”

  1. Michelle says:

    At a little after 8 Central time, the margin is at 6. I’m so afraid to jinx this, but I am very hopeful.

    NC is still in the 20’s last time I checked.

  2. Yup.

    I’m holding on to see if there are any game changers in the making. Obama’s original high share of the vote has dropped some, but Clinton is still struggling to get over Forty.

    meanwhile, Indiana’s been stuck on six points, and I’m waiting to see if that shrinks more or grows.

    I’m really curious about the HuffPo numbers I saw earlier, and wonder how dead on they are.

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