By Every Metric

In his movement to solidify and certify his status as the Democratic party’s presumptive nominee, Senator Barack Obama has taken the lead in yet another metric, giving him the lead in virtually every metric that matters.

He was already the leader in pledged delegates, the popular vote, states won, and money raised. He now, according to ABC News, is also the leader in Super Delegates as well.

This may or may not be official at this moment; virtually every news source has its own tally, and ABC’s announcement contradicts, for instance, CNN’s tally which still has Clinton with an eight delegate lead among Supers.

Regardless, it can’t be ignored that Obama has picked up a net gain of Super Delegaes against Clinton every day since the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina on Tuesday.

The two endorsements that, by ABC’s count, put Obama over the top in the only metric he truly lagged behind Clinton in came from Oregon and New Jersey.

The endorsement of New Jersey’s Donald Payne serves as a double hit against Clinton’s aspirations to pull her candidacy from the jaws of defeat as he serves as a defection, and gives Obama a net gain of +2. Meanwhile, Oregon’s Peter DeFazio may not come as a twofer, but he does represent support in one of the final states left to vote, and could assist in Obama sealing the deal in that state.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Hillary, though. She too picks up a Super Delegate in Pennsylvania’s Chris Carney, at least nullifying the net gain that DeFazio’s endorsement provided to Obama.

Still, at not even 9:00am EST, there’s a lot of daylight left and the net Super Delegate (and thus total delegate) advantage moves two more in Obama’s favor. It may also be worth mentioning that the Super Delegate pickups alone may end up being enough to nullify whatever delegate gain Clinton wins in West Virginia.

In any case, now this is really me signing off for the weekend. See y’all Sunday night.

One Response to “By Every Metric”

  1. tas says:

    It doesn’t matter if he has a superdelegate lead. I’ve been doing more math (I found out the variables I used in my last post were wrong, thus making the numbers wrong, so I double-checked the actual variables and crunched more numbers — corrections forthcoming), and factoring the latest poll numbers in upcoming primaries and translating those to delegates, by the end of this mess Obama will need just 85 superdelegates to push him over the top. As of last night, the number of undecided superdelegates was 271 — so that’s 32%.

    Clinton, on the otherhand, will be 217 delegates away from the nod by my projections. So she’ll need 80% of the remaining superdelegates to break her away. Though it looks better than my previous numbers, based on incorrect variables, but.. Not much better.

    I’ll be making a post about this after class.


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