Hillary: Done.

Somebody correct me if my math is wrong, but I do believe the contest is over. 

Over on Daily Kos, they have a handy box showing us how many delegates both Obama and Clinton have amassed in previous primary contests, along with pledged superdelegates, and how many delegates there are left to be had this primary season.  The totals before tonight’s contests:

Obama: 1774.5 delegates, needs 280 more to win

Clinton: 1609 delegates, needs 415 to win

Whichever candidate reaches 2024 delegates first wins the nomination.; and there’s only 404 delegates left to fight over — this number includes tonight’s contests. 

Now all the voting data has yet to be calculated, but using realistic elements of projecting vote totals and the share of deletes that will be won by those vote totals, Obama has mathematically eliminated Clinton from the contest tonight.

Here’s my reasoning: If Obama wins 60% of the electorate in North Carolina (he’s at 59% with 33% of precincts reporting), then he should get 60% of North Carolina’s 115 delegates.  That’s 70 delegates for Obama.

If Obama gets 48% in Indiana, then he gets 34 of that state’s 72 delegates.  And Obama getting 48% — or more — in Indiana is very plausible right now.  The counties next to Chicago and Indianapolis have not reported yet, and his current share of the vote is 47%.

But even if Obama doesn’t get the majority of Indiana’s vote, he still wins the nomination tonight.  Obama should win 104 delegates tonight, compared to Clinton winning 83.  This would bring Obama’s grand total of delegates to 1847, and Clinton’s to 1693.  With 2024 delegates needed to win, Obama needs just 177 more while Clinton has to get 331.

But with 404 delegates left before tonight, and 187 delegates up for grabs tonight, that leaves 217 delegates left to be decided by the voters. 

I don’t know how many superdelegates are left, but it’s not many.  For Clinton to win the nomination, she would have to win 80-90% of both delegates in the next primaries and the superdelegates.  Which is impossible.

Congratulations to Barack Obama, your Democratic presidential nominee…  And it’s time for you to do the right thing, Hillary.  Concede. 

3 Responses to “Hillary: Done.”

  1. No, your math’s just about right.

    She won’t concede, of course. The only thing that would force a concession… POSSIBLY, is if Obama actually wins Indiana outright, which is possible at this point.

    But I’m not going to say anything because I believe in the laws of Jinx, and we are firmly in Jinx’s territory right now.

  2. tas says:

    I have a feeling that the only two words we’ll have from the HillCamp after tonight are “Michigan” and “Florida”.

    And of course she won’t quit yet, but I think that as long as she had a mathematical chance of pulling it out, there couldn’t be any calls for Hillary to quit. But that mathematical chance has now been eliminated. A change in the minds of pundits who haven’t yet called on Hillary to quit will follow suit. I mean, venturing a wild guess here, but even if we give Hillary 60% of both Michigan and Florida’s delegates, then what? She still loses.

    The campaign is done. Unless the vote totals still coming in from North Carolina close Obama’s greatly cut into Obama’s margin of victory, the reality is that Hillary lose tonight.

  3. Randell says:

    i just have to say being a canadian and all i dont fully understand american politics all that well but i do have a grasp on the situation.clinton is a falldown and she wasnt gonna win from the very get go.next president?mcain?obama?neither in 2006 and 2008 hr5122 i beleive president bush passed a law that sates bush is given the right to put america into a state of marshall law if he sees the country ina an uproar k, next obama whats all the talk about assasination?HE WONT WIN THE ELECTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am so sick of the american people being played i love americans but the poliyicians in america are no good.My point is clinton never had a chance and neither did any of the candidates running for presidency.

    BUSH FOR A THIRD TERM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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