Indiana: 2 point spread with 91% reporting

With Kyle taking a break I thought I would jump in for a moment and provide a brief update. As of 11:45 EST the gap between Clinton and Obama is now down to under 20,000 which narrows her lead down to 2 percentage points. The talk now is that it is quite possible Obama could pull this out by just over 1,000 votes.

Now that the gap is narrow enough the media (in the form of Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann) are beginning to play out the impact Rush Limbaugh’s “operation chaos” had on this election. Early on there was quite a bit of talk of a “significant” turnout by Republicans voting in for Hillary. Now I know Rush’s popularity has waned but I am willing guess he at least has enough control his vacuous ditto-head nation to get 1,000 of them to vote for Hillary.

5 Responses to “Indiana: 2 point spread with 91% reporting”

  1. tas says:

    Two counties that Obama is leading in — Lake (right next to Chicago) and Monroe — haven’t reported all their results yet (whereas most other counties in the state have). We know 67% of Monroe’s votes and Obama has 8900/66% of the vote there. But Lake county is more important: Obama has 28,000 votes, which is 75%, with just 28% of that county’s results in.

    Union, a small rural county bordering Ohio, hasn’t chipped in any results yet, though it’s likely t give Hillary a couple thousand more for her total.

    The total votes from Lake County so far is 37,470, which CNN says is 28% of the electorate there. This means that the total vote count expected tonight from Lake County is almost 134,000. If Obama gets 70% of that, it’s 93,000 votes.

    And he wins Indiana.

    When I wake up tomorrow, I expect a retraction from CBS.

  2. Freaking career. I have to get some sleep! Arrgh!

  3. Holy Shit.

    Tas… that needs to be a post man. Seriously.

    As for me… I’m not a praying man, but I think tonight’s a good place to start.

    So anyone wanna help me out here? Should I get kneepads, or am I good, and does it matter if my fingers are laced, or can they be held flat together.

  4. tas says:

    Probably good that I didn’t make it a post, since my conservative estimate of Obama getting 70% of Lake County’s vote was way off — he got 55% by the end. So Hillary squeaked out a win.

    On the post I did make last night, though, my predictions were a lot better. I was about 10 delegates off for what both Obama and Clinton won — so that math hasn’t really changed. In delegate counts, Hillary has been mathematically eliminated from this presidential race. She no longer has a chance of winning. Her conceding isn’t no longer a matter of opinion — she needs to now.

  5. tas says:

    I just double-checked my math from last night and found out one variable I worked with was wrong: there are 404 delegates left to be voted on. Since Clinton needs 324 to win, she’s not quite mathematically out of if yet…

    Between those and the 277 superdelegates left, there are 681 delegates still in play. Hillary needs 324 of those, but Obama needs 183. If Obama gets 45% of the remaining delegates to be voted on (and I think anyone would agree, after last night, that such is a very, very conservative total), that’s 181 delegates. He would need 2 more superdelegates to win at that point.

    So Hillary’s campaign, while not technically mathematically eliminated, is now at the point we’ve all talked about — where she needs to win by ridiculous percentage spreads to beat Obama in the delegate count. It’s just not possible. She’ll probably win West Virginia but she’s not going to get the 75% she needs there — impossible.

    So though the math has changed, the result stays the same: Hillary has lost this presidential race. She’s done. She needs to concede.

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