Return of the Gallup Daily Tracker

We’re not even in the General Election yet, and I’m already running out of new title ideas for Gallup Daily Tracker posts.  It’s going to be a long election.

Sunday’s GDT provides some very interesting data as we look to transitioning from the primary to the General Election.  Most notable, of course, is the fact that Obama has once again attained the highest level of support at 52% during this primary season.

While it’s still early to tell, this does appear to signify perhaps a coalescing around a likely Democratic nominee.  Supporting this would also be some of the lowest support numbers that Clinton has seen in a while as well.

Despite this, though, Tuesday would appear to be a major stepping stone on the road to the White House for Obama,which means that starting Wednesday, the polls could swing one way or another depending upon the media narrative that emerges.  Likely, though, it would seem that the probability that the media narrative will be positive for Obama is high, and thus this trend should continue.

Looking at the hypothetical GE match ups, not much has changed.  Clinton is polling slightly above McCain, while Obama is pulling even.  Both match ups are statistical ties.

In truth, it may appear at this juncture that Clinton has the upper hand against McCain, but that is taking a very narrow view of the polling trends.  What is a much more accurate assessment of the hypothetical polls, though, is that both races are essentially neck and neck, though there is more volatility in the Obama/McCain race.

Needless to say, this is a soft number as Obama is polling neck and neck with McCain when party unity is probably at its worst throughout the course of this campaign.


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