That Didn’t Take Long

Hillary Clinton enjoyed a couple of days of watching her opponent take a dive in the polls, Obama’s dip in the Gallup Daily Tracker perhaps among the most prominent.

For four days, Hillary Clinton managed to enjoy statistically insignificant leads over Barack Obama, an obvious backlash of the rekindling of the Rev. Wright controversy. But today Obama has regained his position as the front-runner in the GDT.

Interestingly, what is distinctly noticeable is the fact that Hillary’s short termed lead was not so much a function of her rise as it was of Obama’s temporary fall; a fall that is apparently on its way of turning around again.

Which is exactly the kind of lens that one must look through when contemplating the Clinton campaign’s willingness to use the “Nuclear Option.” And this nuclear option is exactly one of the reasons why I have been following the daily tracker as closely as I have been.

As some Clinton campers have fully admitted, going nuclear, that is, manipulating the Rules and Bylaws committee to seat, as is, the Florida and Michigan delegations, carries with it severe risks. These risks can only be avoided under a strict set of conditions.

-Polling must indicate that, despite pledged delegate counts, Hillary Clinton is favored to be the party’s nominee by a wide margin.

-Obama must be so damaged that even Obama supporters would readily cede that he may not be electable.

And even then it is a risk banking on the hopes that there aren’t enough purists who would balk at such a blatant 180 from the way the process is supposed to work. Shorter: Obama being fatally wounded isn’t enough. Clinton enjoying a surge of popularity isn’t enough. She must have both.

And as the GDT indicates, Hillary is experiencing difficulties on both fronts. Obama has taken now nearly two months of a non stop barrage and he manages to keep coming back, while on the other hand, despite late momentum that Clinton is experiencing in these latter states, in general her overall popularity within the party still struggles to maintain at the same level.

To give you an example of what I’m talking about, Hillary has not been above fifty percent nationally across the board amongst multiple polling firms since December. And that, ladies and gentlemen is condemning data if you are attempting to win the nomination the way that Clinton is attempting to win.

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