What Will Happen Tomorrow

Well, tomorrow yet another episode in the bleary drama that is the Democratic party’s nomination battle will come and go, and we will find ourselves still in the tunnel playing guessing games as to whether the light up ahead is daylight or a freight train.

Indeed, while the actual numbers may be left up for time and the future to tell, they can hardly have much bearing on where we will find ourselves come Wednesday. This because the nomination battle has long since ceased to be about numbers of any kind, or even about the candidates, so much as an excruciating waiting game where quite a few of us are just praying that we do have this whole debacle wrapped up by June 3rd.

We know that Obama’s mathematical advantage will persist, and win big or not, he’ll move on to the next states in play and do what he can to keep picking up delegates.

We also know the Clinton play, her game of lowered expectations by now as predictable as the rising of the sun. Though she’s been ahead of Obama in Indiana in post polls recently, she still claims to be the underdog, which means that regardless of how she performs in Indiana, she’s going to claim a stunning upset victory. Meanwhile, look for her reaction to North Carolina to rely heavily upon the margin of victory there; if she ekes out a win, or comes within single digits, that too will be a stunning upset victory. If Obama beats her by more than double digits, on the other hand, look for Clinton to forget that NC even had a primary.

That’s just the nature of this particular beast. Obama’s all but won by any meaningful measure, and Clinton has vowed to continue on regardless of what’s going on.

As for how the actual vote will shake up?

Full disclosure; in an online conversation with my colleague Matt, he predicted Clinton by 3 in Indiana and Obama by 9 in North Carolina, and to be honest, those margins are reasonable enough that I’m not inclined to disagree with them. Should the popular vote shake down something like that, then what the delegate breakdown will likely show is Clinton picking up a net gain of 2 delegates in the land of the Hoosiers, while Obama nets 11 delegates in the home of the Tarheels. All told, it should end up being a net nine delegate pick up on the day for Obama.

Of course, this is all assuming that monkey wrenches are kept far away from the works, which it would be foolish to assume. The thing that truly bothers me is the fact that both states are holding open primaries.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m definitely a what’s good for the goose is good for the gander kind of guy. I approved of open primaries when they were benefitting Obama, and I’m not going to all of a sudden come out and start panning them now that they aren’t quite so much in his favor (Hillbloggers take note; this is called integrity. It’s when you agree to the rules and play by them as opposed to agreeing to the rules at one point, and then, when they no longer suit your needs, you bust your ass trying to change them until you can win).

So, I’m not going to complain about the open primaries as far as whether that’s something we should be doing, but it is worth mentioning that open primaries do allow for some surprises. For instance, there is Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” where he is delivering orders to his legions of dittoheads to vote en masse for Clinton in an effort to keep the Democratic primary going.

The other thing that makes prediction difficult, at least in my mind, is that with the Republican nomination having been set so long ago, there very well may be an increase in the number of Republicans who opt to vote in the Democratic primary, electing whomever they so choose.

With this taken into account, there is most definitely a lot of room for those margins of victories to shift and, all things considered, I don’t necessarily believe they will shift in Obama’s favor.

So I’m going to stay with Matt’s predictions, but I’m going to append those numbers with the possibility of Hillary having a real good night as a result of the crowd pleasing (though totally inane) “gas tax holiday” and also due to whatever chaos Republican voters may choose to inflict upon the Democratic primary.

But, as I said, I don’t think it all matters too terribly much. The only things that might even come close to being game changers are if Obama loses by a wide margin in Indiana, or if he loses by any margin in North Carolina. This will drive news cycles straight up to West Virginia where Obama is already slated to lose by a substantial margin, which will continue to drive a negative media blitz against Obama up to the May 20th primaries of Oregon and Kentucky.

Mathematically, not even running the board from here on in will allow Clinton to make up the ground that she needs to to become an undisputed nominee, but then, that’s been the case for some time now, which means that there is little change on this front either.

The primaries themselves have devolved into little more than pageantry, with the opinions and allegiances declared by the Super Delegates proving to be the deciding factor in this nomination contest.

Thus, if you really want to know who is going to be the nominee, keeping your eyes on the primaries is all fine and dandy, but keep your eyes on the Super Delegates. Where they go, so to go the winds of the Democratic nominee.

One Response to “What Will Happen Tomorrow”

  1. sayno2Clinton says:

    Team Clintons’ Alarming Religious Affiliations

    The media still remains relentless in assailing Obama and Rev. Wright for his sermons. How much longer can they milk this story? If they’re going to be fair, not much longer. Since Pandora’s box has been opened, it’s now time to give Team Clinton the same kind of scrutiny. By the way, Hillary already vetted? Don’t bet on it. Check out:
    http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2007/09/hillarys-prayer.html and http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080331/ehrenreich

    Two issues are key to the argument about religious beliefs: Wright’s inflammatory rhetoric and Team Clinton’s right wing values, which are demonstrated in their religious affiliations, along with their political dedication to the Third Way as well as many PNAC aims.

    Is there a justifiable defense for Wright’s assertions? In part, yes: rage and distrust of the federal government, which is rampant. That doesn’t, however, make them correct. Nonetheless it doesn’t take much to extrapolate numerous circumstances, including the experiments conducted by the CIA/army over the years with LSD, nuclear radiation, and toxins on the unsuspecting public, into a belief that the U.S. developed AIDS as a bioweapon. It doesn’t seem likely if that were the case that the target was African Americans, but it’s easy to see how a fair number of reasonable people suspect such a thing.

    Part of Wright’s rage, of course, is associated with race and the indignities suffered by blacks for many decades. Thus, insisting the government intentionally spread AIDS is also, figuratively, a way of representing the aggregate injustice done against blacks. While, probably, not empirically accurate, it’s representative of a legacy of abuse. Obama is certainly smart enough to see the difference, and has emphatically said so.

    Wright also vigorously condemned the war in Iraq, albeit with the “Goddamn America” phrase. Pat Robertson and others also claim God damns America for its sins, but, being far more culturally conservative, those concerns include abortion, boozing, and drugging rather than conducting immoral wars. In the end, self-righteous condemnation is the same breed of belief. Logically speaking there is no difference.

    Team Clinton’s alignment with neoChristianity, however, isn’t based on the same kind of outrage Wright shows for the war. Their brand of beliefs are sympathetic to the End Timers who expect the world to end soon and The Rapture to arrive and save the blessed.

    Why is this worse than Wright? Wright is merely an angry black minister, at times, who’s also aiming for the kind of peace Christ worked for, and is enraged by a senseless war. On the other hand, the Family and its ties to Fundamentalism is in closer alignment to the End Timers – basically the same core belief as W has had while shoving the “War on Terror” down America’s throat. Wright insensitively protests the war; the End Timers, however, are content to see it carried out for they can’t wait for The Rapture to occur.

    Consequently, Hillary threatens to “obliterate” Iran. In this way, the PNAC Neocon strategy of American neoimperialism and protection of Israel is unified with Christian Fundamentalism’s throw-caution-to-the-wind strategy so that there’s little hesitancy to light the fire in the Middle East. After all, God’s coming to save the redeemed according to their beliefs.

    The problem with Clinton’s Kool Aid drinking followers is that they’re mesmerized by all the domestic policy promises while forgetting that once the U.S. goes to war against Iran, or any other Middle Eastern nation, oil will rise above $250/bbl, the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked, a draft will be necessary to assemble the numbers needed, and Americans will be lucky if they hold onto exiting Social Security and Medicare programs. Forget all of her other promises and pandering; they will be impossible.

    Super delegates, what are you waiting for? Team Clinton – whose record illustrates a liberal domestic agenda with a few Free Market moves that’ve hurt the middle class and a right wing foreign policy agenda – is, in the end, more of the same, as Obama says. Are you actually considering a vote for a brash talking, tough acting chickenhawk as the nominee? Then, really, what would the difference be between McCain and Clinton? Mandated Healthcare for people who can’t afford it?


  1. Saving Myself the Effort | Comments from Left Field - [...] least then I would be able to squeeze out my own prediction, but I already did that yesterday.  So,…

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