If A Bounce Occurs In A Forest…

I have to giggle a little bit at the way some folks are looking at the polls these days. It’s almost zenlike the way some are declaring that Obama got a bounce while others vehemently declare that there was no such bounce.

If a bounce occurs after the conclusion of a primary battle, but no one refuses to believe it, did it actually happen?

The New Republic dispenses with the no bounce hogwash pretty brazenly showing that Obama is doing exceedingly well following the conclusion of the primary battle. With the exception of SUSA’s admittedly strange Minnesota numbers, it looks like Obama is bouncing quite nicely, even in states like Kentucky where his deficit behind McCain is down to twelve…

The big news, according to Nate Silver, is the eleven point lead that Obama is looking at in Ohio, which Nate calls the most important state in the election. But the poll that really grabbed my eye was this one that has McCain only up by 4 in North Carolina.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I think Ohio is the big prize this year. I think if Obama can seal the deal there, it’s game over. But it’s not the only path to victory, and I think that North Carolina and Virginia could be big stories this fall as well.

While some may remain skeptical, I think Obama has an excellent chance at winning Virginia, as I’ve said often in the past. He’s on the ins with what is a rapidly growing and powerful Democratic party apparatus in this state, and the fact that the big local race here this fall will be the highly popular Mark Warner running for senate can’t hurt.

Obama could shore up Virginia simply by stroking McCain on his poor record for supporting the troops, while offering some solid pro-VA stuff to sweeten the pot.

But while I am gradually getting a feel for Virginia politics, North Carolina remains something of a mystery to me. I’ve only gone as deep into North Carolina as the Outer Banks, which I imagine is not exactly reflective of the entire state.

Still, if McCain is only managing a small single digit lead in that state, what that does, I believe, is give Obama room for his superior organization and mobilization effort to make up the difference.

On a broader scale, I think that’s the key. Obama has a significant organization and mobilization advantage over McCain that may not necessarily be reflected in the polls, and while this is incredibly premature, if Obama can keep within 3 points of McCain in any given state, I think he enjoys a better than 50 percent chance of walking away with a surprise upset.

(edited by DrGail)

One Response to “If A Bounce Occurs In A Forest…”

  1. another indication of how far behind we are in math skills

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