Checking your sources

The wingers are having an absolute bukkake fest over the latest national poll showing McCain ahead of Obama.  But, of course, there are a couple things they fail to mention…

First and foremost, this is a Zogby poll.  And Zogby sucks.  This is the same polling company that said “The Election Is Kerry’s To Lose” in 2004; and more recently in 2008 they gave Obama a 13 percentage point lead over Clinton in New Hampshire on the day of the primary.  It doesn’t surprise me that the right depends upon such companies to do a reliable job — these are the people who voted for and defended Bush no matter how much he f*cked up. 

Second, Obama still leads in the average of national polls

And third, national polls hardly matter anyway since we have an electoral college to elect our presidents. Pollster.com has an aggregate of state polls, and right now Obama has 264 electoral votes to McCain’s 191. Additionally, Pollster considers some states too close to count (83 electoral votes were given to neither candidate) — the swing states.  But these swing states are experiencing growth in their ranks from states which are normally Republican strongholds.  The Obama campaign has put Virginia, Montana, and North Dakota in play — that’s huge.  McCain has not been able to make Democratic strongholds into swing states. 

So for those that thought one poll from a lousy pollster changes everything, I’m sorry to disappoint you. 

9 Responses to “Checking your sources”

  1. Peter says:

    Keep telling yourself that.

  2. Jonathan says:

    *sniff sniff*

    smells like panic in here.

  3. *ahem*

    This thing ain’t even started, just wait.

    The one thing that tas kind of omitted is that the general election hasn’t even really started yet. Yes, McCain’s been doing arguably okay as of late, but then it’s not hard to win against someone who ain’t even started yet.

    Thus:

    Zogby polling data (tas is right, btw, Zogby blows chunks) + general election polling before the bulk of swing voters have even begun paying attention + one candidate who has continued to maintain the lead without even campaigning aggressively, and believe me, he will=nothing quite yet to panic about.

    Now, if a majority of polls were showing the same data, and it was, you know, a week to the election, that would be cause to panic.

    At this point, a zogby poll showing McCain in the lead is nothing but panic surpressant for righties who know they’re not going to have a good time this fall.

    I’m just saying.

  4. Mona says:

    Like my new bumper sticker says, “The Road to Hell is Paved with Liberals”
    Happy 20th Anniversary Rush Limbaugh…… The left will loose again just like Mondale and Dukakis…. oh and lets don’t forget, Gore and Kerry…. Keep it up, Libs… you’ve gotta have some Hope … but “Barry Hussein” is not it…. LOL

  5. tas says:

    sniff sniff

    Smells like ignorance to empirical evidence even when it’s shoved in your face. Or, in other words, it smells like a wingnut dropping.

  6. dualdiagnosis says:

    Zogby is a liberal, his polls always lean toward the left. When he is wrong it’s always because he overstates the Dem response.

    That’s why this poll takes on so much significance.

  7. tas says:

    dd — 13+ for Obama in NH. Day of the primary. So Zogby was off by what, 18-20 points? This isn’t a liberal bias thing, the dude just sucks.

  8. radical_Moderate says:

    “The left will loose again just like Mondale and Dukakis…. ”
    And people wonder why Bush ( Proud of being a C student) won twice.

    Anyway this poll was taken while Obama was on Holiday, thus “off stage,” and when Russia moved into Georgia allowing McCain to once again sell himself as a “foreign Policy expert,” never mind that McCain’s “Foreign policy ” is one note: saber rattling.

    As for Saddleback, yes McSame gave a better performance, but the intelligent viewer with a moderate or liberal bone in their body should have been chilled by what McCain was saying in between the aging fly-boy swagger ( “I will go to the gates of Hell to get Bin Laden,” etc.), and semi-amusing “one liners.” McCain was crystal clear about his intentions to get rid of Roe, and to continue the neo-con interventionist, America as World Policeman, policies of the current administration.

    As for Obama getting tougher, let’s hope so. Obama ran a “take no prisoners” Chicago Campaign to get into public office; I’m sure hoping that he turns it on for McCain this Fall.

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