Bouncy!

The disclaimer first: polls aren’t the most reliable things in the world.

Still, there seems to be more than a few indicators that despite the shock and awe tactic of selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain was unable to derail any kind of bounce and momentum that the Obama campaign was able to generate from the Democratic convention.

I guess that’s what 38 million viewers and a national press stunned into awe will do.  Across the board the Democrats’ convention was billed as a success; the tone almost perfect, starting off slow and ramping up to some very harsh criticisms of both the Bush administration, and the McCain campaign, without dipping down into ugly smears.  Capping the week off was Obama’s own speech where he accomplished everything he needed to accomplish and met every high expectation set for him.

The result?  The Gallup Daily Tracker has Obama at the fifty point mark for the first time during the general electionAs Josh Marshall further points out, there are awful lot of other polls coming out in the past twenty-four hours which back up the trend that Obama is indeed putting some distance between he and John McCain.

What does this mean for camp McCain?  It really puts the pressure on an already truncated convention.  He needs to pull a bounce that will draw him even with Obama or the fact that Obama has pulled into the lead will become the driving news story kicking off next week.

Also, in this new light, we really see the stakes riding on the selection of Sarah Palin as running mate.  Expectations for her have been lowered considerably due in large part to the slew of negative stories that have been hitting the ground running since the announcement.

This could actually be a good thing for the McCain/Palin ticket; lowered expectations are easier to meet.  On the other hand, it is also very possible that the stories of pork barrel dependancy, and abuse of power could taint her introduction to the electorate as a whole.

The predicament that McCain finds himself is one of his own doing.  Now suffering significant deficits in quite a few polls, this week should be about making the sales pitch for McCain as Commander in Chief.  Now this week must be about convincing the public that Palin wasn’t a disastrous choice.  If he fails that, no argument for him as CiC will suffice.

On the upside for Obama, even if McCain has a very good week this week, chances are he will only pull even with Obama.  This continues to favor Obama for the final month and three weeks of the election will be focused on the ground game (where Obama has severe advantages over McCain), and the four scheduled presidential debates where Obama is likely to perform better there as well.

2 Responses to “Bouncy!”

  1. James says:

    Trends are more compelling than the polls themselves, so there may be something to these numbers.

    However, these are post-convention numbers for the Democrats, and we should wait to see what sort of post-convention bounce McCain gets before getting too excited.

    Additionally, I’ve been disappointed by the debates before. Who could have predicted that Bush would do well AT ALL in debates against Gore or even Kerry?

  2. hillcountry says:

    Palin = blowback
    Biden = good choice
    Advantage Obama

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