Momentum Shifts

The latest Gallup Daily Tracking poll brings with it news that should be heartening for Obama supporters, and worrisome for the McCain team.  After maintaining at least some margin over Barack Obama since the close of the Republican national Convention, Barack Obama has reclaimed a two point lead (though, it should be noted that such a lead falls within the margin of error).

Gallup further goes on to say that there is not enough data yet collected to imply a causal relationship between Obama’s gain in momentum to the recent misfortune on Wall Street.  However, I think that data will soon be forthcoming if two things continue.

The first is if negative economic news continues to hit at a steady pace.  John McCain, who once said that he didn’t know as much about the economy as he probably should, will be put in the hotseat with every major development, and such a dynamic has put him in a tough position where he has had to either backtrack on positions he’s held for decades, or answer in generalities and rhetoric that sounds even too hollow for low information voters.

Yes, people can be easily dazzled by fancy ads, but if an issue hits crisis level on a broad scale, expect more people to cut through the glitz and look for the meat.

The second thing to pay attention to is if Obama can continue to own the issue as he has done through the first half of this week.  Central to this has been a major economic speech delivered yesterday in Colorado, and a controversial, and frankly risky, two minute long commercial sans production value that does nothing more than feature the candidate talking about the economy.

The interesting thing about the recent developments on Wall Street is that they have placed the arena of this election firmly on substantive, issue-based ground, which we know is the last place where John McCain wants to see this thing waged.  Telegraphed by virtually every step his campaign has made over the past few weeks, the McCain campaign has shown that it’s best shot is to win on the field of narratives.

But now he not only finds himself mired in an issues based race, but the issue itself is perhaps his weakest area, this no doubt being compounded by the selection of Sarah Palin, and the subsequent distortions on her own economic record which has brought the integrity of both sides of the ticket into question, particularly on the economy.

As I said earlier this week, I think we can expect things to continue in this direction, with Friday likely bringing with it a national lead for Obama in the 3-6 point range.

3 Responses to “Momentum Shifts”

  1. Continuum says:

    The wide swing from Obama to McCain in previous Gallup polls are greatly suspect.

    In at least one instance Gallup changed its polling sampling and failed to note that it had changed its methods.

    One wonders what the reality is.

    But, 10 point swings as given previously by Gallup are not realistic nor probable. Someone has been fiddling with the polls. Gallup results are no longer believable nor it seems reliable.

  2. Pug says:

    I’m old enough to remember another candidate who simply talked to the camera about what he would do if elected. That was Ronald Reagan in what appeared to be a close race in 1980.

  3. radical_Moderate says:

    Did Reagan have 150 lobbyists guiding his campaign? Did Reagan have a chief advisor such As Carley Fiorina who collected an obscene $40 million “golden parachute” when HP fired her sorry Ass? (To add a filip on the Fiorina back-story, 20,000+ people lost their jobs due to Fiorina’s zeal for outsourcing…outsourcing that failed to revive the HP brand during her tenure) The galling thing is that McCain was ranting about greedy CEOs in his remarks on the economy yesterday all the while Ms Fiorina was acting as his spokesperson.

    Conveniently McCain left out the fact that he chaired the Commerce Committee, and that his chief economic adivisor, Phil Gramm, pushed for many of the loop-holes and legislation that has contributed to this crisis. John “Deregulate” McCain has got balls I’ll grant him that for even attempting a populist campaign when he, and the Republican’s, long love affair with Corporate America has been crystal clear for almost 30 years starting with the Union Busting, “trickle down” King, Ronald Reagan. In any event, I could fit what McCain knows about the common working man inside my smallest fart.


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