Anybody interested in starting a pool on when Joe Biden will be tragically sidelined with a critically infected hair-follicle (or something) and Barack Obama will heroically fill his slot with the Lady-in-Waiting?

Here’s the thing you don’t seem to factor in… conservatives in America have felt shamed and silenced for a LONG time. Alexis de Tocqueville described the sheer power of public opinion in America, arguing that it was more effective than any amount of government censorship. Conservatives have been tuning in Rush Limbaugh, et al, for twenty years to try to overcome their own inferiority complex. They’ve been saying the media is unfair, biased against people like them, but nobody seems to agree (especially the media).

Then Sarah Palin comes along to validate everything these cowed and demoralized conservatives have felt. History is full of battles where beleaguered forces overcame overwheliming odds through the power of an inspiring leader (let’s start with the Battle of Agincourt, where Shakespeare has Henry V say, “We few, we happy few, we band of brothers”). People who are ready to charge the barricades have been surprisingly effective over the years–and conservatives are suddenly fired up.

The media has managed to infuriate the right and validate most of their grievances in one astonishingly short week. Conservatives have generally assumed the press would do everything in its power to make sure Obama wins, but they didn’t think the non-political public would ever notice. Now there are a lot of working moms who wonder why Oprah won’t have Sarah on her show.

Then there’s the Bradley Effect. It was DEMOCRATS, if you recall, who said they had voted for Obama in the exit polls even though their ballots showed something different. Republicans may have the guts to tell you they’re going to vote for a white guy over a black guy, but Democrats seem more nuanced* about the issue. (*They lie to pollsters.) This means the polls in battleground states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) are going to SAY Obama is leading, which the media will SAY proves that America has rejected old Mr. How-Many-Houses White Guy and his Creationist side-kick, but the fired-up foot soldiers of the Evangelical base are going to campaign like they believe in miracles (which they do) instead of media (which they don’t).

None of this means McCain/Palin will beat Obama/Biden… but it sure makes for an interesting race.

Couple the above with the fact, FACT mind you, that Barack Obama has consistently underperformed his projected numbers every time ballots have been cast this year (not caucus votes, but ballots, at polling places on election day). Add in the likelihood that the Dems must have ALL 3 of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio to win on 11/4. And salt liberally with the knowledge that Obama has been operating with a tailwind for months, while McCain has the definite headwind of having GOP after his name. What you get is a recipe for disaster in November for Obama.
He should be ahead by double digits. To win by 5 points he’ll need to be ahead in pre-election polls by nearly 10. To win the election he’ll need 3% more votes than McCain. The GOP can win with less than 50%. The Dems can’t. Thats just the way the states work out. The fact that the largest margin out there shows 7 and most show a dead heat and some show a slight McCain lead should scare the boxers off of Barack.
The GOP has the proven ground game. Democrats used to have a proven ground game, when their base was working class. Now their base has a lot of people not used to accomplishing anything.
Remember, Gallup had Kerry up by 3 points a week before the 2004 vote. Bush won by 3. So go ahead and bank on that 7 point Obama spread in the latest Gallup.

The commentary by liberal columnists shows that they know they have been beaten during the convention phase of the campaign. Obama should have won. He had the advantage going in. He had the better message. He had the tailwind. He lost the convention fight anyway. His enemies have seen that his front lines are paper thin and very, very weak. McCain has the momentum. Considering the year long ground swell for Obama this is almost inconcievable. And yet it happened. Now its a dogfight. And there will be no defectors from the enemy camp this time (superdelegates). He has to win the debate phase just to recapture his momentum. Anything less than a decisive set of debate wins won’t do. Remember, GWB was trounced pretty well in the debates last time. And he won the election. Everyone expects Obama to trounce McCain in the debates. Has Obamas performance in the tests so far shown that he can live up to expectations?

Barack is in trouble.

There once was a vice-president from Missouri named Harry S. Truman who was branded exactly the same way in his day as you are doing with Palin family. Yes he had a lot of experience but he was treated as if he was a hayseed from Missouri by the inside the beltway group. That hayseed was one our best presidents. I am sure that you are person who feels that you have all the answers and that everyone should agree with you because of your natural superiority. What you really are is bigot. A person who only sees the world from their own perspective without thinking others have value. Let’s get a grip on reality and understand that even though we are different there is still value in those we may not agree with politically. Hopefully some day you will grow up and see the world differently. If you don’t you will be mired in your own delusional world forever.

I’m sure you label anyone who points out your errors a “troll.”

You don’t bother to mention that we won’t know for sure until “polling interviews include voters after the Palin address” until three paragraphs after you’ve hammer McCain and Palin, saying their campaign “looks largely to be an uphill one,” and ” they face a significant polling deficit, with the Gallup Daily Tracker placing them seven points behind.”

What is your evidence for an “uphill battle”? Surely, you can’t make meaningful predictions until AFTER the speeches, so by recognizing this, even peripherally, you contradict the main logic of your post … which is to say, basically, the GOP’s toast and Obama’s the most.

In any case, you make an awful lot of grand conclusions after mentioning that the Gallup sample cannot capture the full public opinion effect of the convention – something we won’t know fully until next week.

With all due respect, I don’t believe you know what you’re talking about. What’s this about “the Democrats were substantive, and delivered policy proposals and specifics which have been sorely lacking from the Republican convention.”

The GOP was very specific, actually, but spin things how you want. Practice makes perfect.

As for the polls, they are LAGGING indicators as to where the public is leaning… give it a few days and I think you will see a big swing to McCain/Palin.

McCain TV Ratings Beat Obama in Preliminary Numbers:
http://www.tvweek.com/news/2008/09/mccain_tv_ratings_beat_obama_i.php

More than 40 million people see Palin speech
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080904/D93079DG4.html

Undoubtedly there was a small (very small) additional bump from the Kos and HuffPo cheap shots and savage media drumbeat of criticism over the weekend. This bump will be dwarfed by the backlash as voters observe reality and react to the patently scurrilous attacks. The Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls are starting to show this: both have narrowed by three full points (from Obama +5 to +2 on Rasmussen and Obama +7 to +4 on Gallup) with just one-third of the interviews conducted after Sarah’s speech. Expect to see a McCain lead by Sunday, barring another big hurricane.

However, to be informed by every important issue is critical and to vote on it based on these issues and truths must be the driving force to cast a vote.

Politics and the media are a breed of its own – corrupt, distorted, manipulated and coerced. Follow your conscience not your emotions. Study the issues yourself not believing it because Hollywood, media or your favorite singer/rock group believes it. If you apply this to real life, you’ll see that when it comes down to it, when the smoke is clear and the brouhaha dissipates and the feeling good energy leaves you, the truth will stare at you straight in the eye where you have no place to run but to yourself.

LESSONS OF THE PAST. SEEK IT.

Why didn’t you just come out and say “trailer trash”? BTW, “people of that ilk” are sucessfull, engaged, committed folks.

Though I understand many folks saying that they are common people with common problems, do we really want people of that ilk having to combat problems for us. Unfortunately, I suspect that they need all the time and focus they have for their present personal issues than to have to deal with other peoples’ problems.

I mean, she is the governor and she/they still can not combat “common problems” with all the staff and assistants they must have. What is their problem? Rather than spend time pondering what their personal issues are, we must admit, from what we currently know, they are a little bit trashy.

Did you read the post? Seriously. I discussed that the polls were pre-Palin’s speech, they were not Pre-Palin herself. That announcement came the Friday directly after Obama’s speech, and the bounce in polls came after during and post convention interviews began cycling themselves out of the pool.

Further, I do believe I said we won’t know for sure until about Sunday or Monday at the earliest. That’s why the title of the post is a question.

That’s my troll feeding for the week.

Both polls are pre-Palin, which confirms my point: This post was written too early. We’ll know the full impact of the Palin effect this weekend.

It’s going to be good, then you’ll haven an answer to “what constitutes success for Palin?”

First, new updates show 40 million people watched the Palin speech which is more than the number that watched Obama. Interesting. Second, establishing the evangelical base was extremely imortant for the Republicans. The media never talks about this but the election turned in Ohio last time becasue of the strong evangelical vote. There are as many of these voters in Ohio as there are in the south. Carl Rove understood this and this is how the Republicans won in 04.

The third is Palin herself. She actually may have trumped Obama’s star status in a world where we are looking for the next “American Idol” in politics. This is a sad statement as to our society and how we elect our leaders, but it is the truth nonetheless.. Palin was brilliant in her presentation, she is extrelemely photogenic and will attract many undecided voters purely becasue of this. I am discovering one thing about McCain. He is a brilliant politician and because of this, he may very well win the Presidency when there is no way that he should.

One more thing, the deomcrats keep nominating a candidate that will speak to the left wing of the party. The problem with this is it is the surest way to lose the general election. There is a good chance that they have done it to themselves again.