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I almost went a whole day without doing a post about polls.

No, I’m not on a polling twelve step program, in truth the only reason why I haven’t focused on polling today was because for the most part the polls haven’t really shown much new.  It’s a stable race with Obama very comfortably ahead.

But then I saw Sully was indicating phenomenal numbers set to be released tomorrow morning.  An NYT/CBS poll is set to show Senator Obama with a fourteen point national lead, 53-39.  That’s definitely outlier territory, though Nate Silver shows how these numbers are not beyond the realm of the unexpected.

A couple of take away thoughts on this.  Obama’s clearly establishing himself at a couple of points over fifty percent.  This is a game breaker right then and there.  If he maintains his own support level over fifty, it won’t matter how many last minute undecideds break for McCain, that’s the ball game.

McCain under forty.  In truth, the more realistic position is that Mccain is hovering in the low forties.  Again, what we are looking at is last minute undecideds, and even if Obama slips under fifty, we are still looking at a disproportionately large percentage of the undecideds have to go in McCain’s direction, and they have to do so in the right states.  Mathematically, McCain’s in a very very bad place.

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