Another Data Point

Here comes another late in the day polling data point, this one from NBC/WSJ which gives Obama his largest lead thus far in that particular polling history at ten points.

There’s not much more I want to say about this poll that I haven’t already said already.  In general I just want to try and keep all of these data points in perspective.

There are obviously polls that are much closer than this double digit lead which could lend some to cherry pick those polls that are more friendly towards their view point.  If you’re a McCain supporter there aren’t many polls that provide unadulterated good news, but there are at least some polls that at least don’t show the race as a total blowout.  If you’re an Obama supporter, one can definitely pick a series of polls showing Obama running away with this election in the double digits.

In truth, neither are necessarily going to be true.  If I were to hazard a guess, I would say Obama’s true lead nationally would be somewhere around 6-9 points.

What is important about these data points is that there are enough polls coming out right now indicating the race widening to refute the building of a consensus that we are currently seeing a much expected tightening in the polls, and thus we can expect to continue to see the state by state polling in key battleground areas stay tight as opposed to breaking one way or another.

It is also important to note that the longer it takes polls to show a true and irrefutable tightening of the race, the more difficult that will make it for McCain to make a come from behind win.  In other words, if we’re still seeing polls come Friday this week showing Obama still with double digit leads nation wide, that is going to seriously impede any realistic chances of McCain winning the election with only one work week left in the campaign.

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