Another Double Digit Lead For Obama

More bad news for the McCain campaign.  With just three weeks and one day before the presidential election, McCain just can’t seem to force the polling trajectory to shift in his favor.

The latest Washington Post poll has Obama leading McCain 53-43.  Now, to be fair, the WaPo’s polls seem to have favored Obama a little more than usual, and this poll is about three points higher than the aggregated average, but I also vaguely remember on the morning that McCain announced the suspension of his campaign WaPo giving Obama another big lead that some including the McCain campaign called an outlier.

That poll was quickly verified by a flurry of other polls.

In truth, this race is starting to gel with the high end of the band being about ten points and the low end being five or six.  What’s even worse news from McCain is that the Obama lead has maintained itself even during a rigorous and aggressive negative campaign aimed directly at Obama and focusing primarily on tying him to terrorism.

Now, if we were to compare this to the Wright bruhaha that happened this spring primarily in Pennsylvania, what we see is that voters are simply looking past it as opposed to getting caught in the whirlwind.  This bodes particularly ill for the McCain campaign because this points to how strong the support for Obama is at this point.

Momentum can shift due to an infinite number of factors, but over the course of the last two weeks I’ve been expecting at least a downturn in the support for the Democratic candidate, and it has yet to come.  I continue to expect a tightening of the race, but the fact that it hasn’t tightened yet indicates to me that people have made their minds up uncharacteristically early.  It also points to the possibility that, if Ayers, Wright, and Rezko aren’t changing minds, even an October Surprise level external event, one that puts the focus of the election on foreign policy as opposed to the economy, could fall short of being enough to shift the trajectory of the race.  This is remarkable as some have posited that something on the order of an attack on American soil could change the race.

Further, if Obama’s lead is closer to the high end of the band that we see across a number of polls, this means that Obama would even survive a last minute break among undecideds in McCain’s direction.

(edited by DrGail)

3 Responses to “Another Double Digit Lead For Obama”

  1. Brenda Kula says:

    Well, I’m starting to breathe a little easier. I live in East Texas, and you rarely see an Obama/Biden sign. And I have one that so far no one has bothered! Thank goodness! But then you expect that in Texas and in the states that always vote Republican. I think this economic mess of the last month is just too much for voters to be able to look past. I sure hope so.
    Brenda

  2. DrGail says:

    Where the signs aren’t being torn down or defaced, you can assume that there is pretty strong support for Obama within the neighborhood. In cases where signs are being torn down, you can assume that the McCain supporters are “on the ropes” and are acting out their frustration.

    Yes, I realize that I’m engaging in “Heads I win, tails you lose” thinking: it sure feels good to be able to do that on behalf of OUR side, instead of sitting idly by watching the Republicans do it.

  3. Just wait until I finish writing the piece I’m working on, both of ya. That would seem to speak more towards what you are talking about. Look for “The New Silent Majority” I hope to have published by the end of the evening.

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