Hate Talk Express*, Next Stop: West Virginia!

Yesterday in a post I expressed my surprise to see West Virginia all of a sudden become a toss up state.  During the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama had only won a quarter of the vote, and many believed that he would have no chance in the state during the general election.

I further posited that even if Obama wasn’t quite as far ahead as the polls may have shown, there was definitely value in the tightening of the race there.  West Virginia was supposed to be a clear and easy take for McCain, but now that it is apparently not, there’s the potential for McCain to have to drop resources in his own territory.

I also remember months ago pointing out that this was Obama’s strength going into the General Election; he had the ability to make McCain stretch himself thin in what was perceived safe territory which would free Obama up to pick off the battlegrounds like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida (all three of which are now considered Lean Obama states).

Of course, there can be no better confirmation than the news that Sarah Palin has just added a bus tour through West Virginia this Sunday to her schedule.  There are two important aspects to this.  The first is that this is exactly what I was talking about; forcing McCain to dump valuable time and resources to protect his own territory.  In this instance, given that Palin is still seen as more popular and draws bigger crowds among the base than McCain, she herself is a very valuable resource to the ticket.

The other thing is that this possibly indicates that the ARG poll showing Obama up by eight may be closer to the mark than initially thought.  I don’t think that McCain would dispatch Palin to West Virginia based on an outlier only.  No, I wouldn’t be surprised if the McCain campaign just got back some internals that told them that they really are in trouble of losing the state if they don’t do something to shore up support and quickly.

This, though, must remain at least for a while longer nothing more than conjecture as there hasn’t yet been any newer polls in West Virginia to confirm the trend or my hypothesis.

*I took the term “Hate Talk Express” from a commenter in the CNN post comments section.  I really like it and will probably keep it until McCain reverses course and calms his angry hordes down a few notches.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Connect with Facebook