No F#$in’ Way

Wonkette just posted one of the most ludicrous electoral possibilities I’ve heard thus far this election cycle.  The only problem is, it could actually happen.

There are a lot of battleground states out there right now that were at one point unlikely to be anything but solid red.  Think about it a moment; Virginia is a strong Obama state at this point.  Four years ago if you told someone that Virginia would vote not just Democrat for president, but a black Democrat for president, you would probably get slapped for being stupid.

But Now we are looking at an electoral map where Virginia isn’t even really a battleground because it is so blue.  North Carolina is an Obama leaning battleground.  Montana and North Dakota are toss ups.

But Arizona?


Most electoral maps you look at right now will most likely indicate that McCain’s home state is as deep red as it gets, and of course we would expect this because… well… it’s McCain’s home state.  But one of the reasons why Arizona is red is because there hasn’t been a poll conducted there in a month.

But a poll that is set to be released in the near future could indicate that Arizona is anything but a safe state for McCain.  How could McCain’s own home state turn into a battleground?  Possibly the economic crisis, and possibly because McCain’s popularity in his state is questionable.  I do recall hearing stories that there are folks back in Arizona that have certain reasons to mistrust the one time Maverick.

Now, the poll is not released, so this could all end up falling through, but if by the end of this week Arizona becomes a toss up state, this could end up having a devestating impact on the McCain campaign.

-It will shake confidence in a campaign in which confidence is already fleeting.  527’s and the RNC are already being stingy with their purse strings when it comes to the presidential ticket, if he appears to be in a position to lose his own state, I could easily imagine all external money drying up completely.

-It gives Obama a huge tactical advantage.  McCain is already pushed into an electoral corner.  If Arizona slides into the toss up category and Obama decides he wants to put a competative presence there, McCain would almost have to divert resources in Arizona.

-It would be devestating for the McCain campaign morale.  We talked about this being a crucial time for the McCain campaign, a point where if they can’t find a silver lining soon we are likely to see the campaign start to cannibalize itself.  This would be just the kind of thing that would turn the McCain campaign into one huge internal blame war and cause further implosion among the staff.

-It will own the news cycle.  Remember how I said that it is vital to McCain’s chances that he own as many news cycles as he possibly can?  He’s already losing that front (today hasn’t been as bad as yesterday, I suppose), but losing one’s own state, especially a state that is traditionally Republican, that’s the kind of process story that the media loves.

So I’m not saying any of this is going to happen, not until I see the actual poll.  But if it does, that’s going to be a very difficult setback for the McCain campaign to overcome.

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