Pew Poll Shows Foreboding News For McCain

Pew Research Center comes out with a rather shocking poll, one that gives Obama a sixteen point edge nation wide and puts McCain down in the mid thirties.

To say this is an outlier would be to severely undermine just how out of whack the numbers are with the rest of the field.  True, Obama’s 52 is well in keeping with the rest of the polling trends, but it’s real tough to buy McCain sitting at 36%.  Equally hard to believe is the idea of the race actually widening when compared to an aggregated trend provided by Pollster which does reflect a very slight tightening of the race.

On the other hand, there are two very interesting things about the Pew poll.  The first is the trending which is incredibly smooth.  In keeping with its own data points of the past, both Obama’s and McCain’s positions are tracking almost perfectly as opposed to, say, your average Zogby poll which is sometimes out of whack with its own trending.

The other number, and the one that should really bother McCain, is that among those that have already voted, Obama apparently leads by 19 points.  These are votes that are already in the bag and won’t be changed over the course of the next six days.  Thus, this number is doubly foreboding for Team McCain because these are votes that are already counted against him, and because this could be a preview of what we will see one week from today.

The 19 point lead in early voting is, if nothing else, indicative of the high level of effectiveness and enthusiasm within the Obama ground game and how it could perform on election day.

Still, I caution all not to get too confident; as we get closer and closer to election day, it begins to look more like the only thing that can bring Obama down is complacency.

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  1. Pew Poll: Obama Favored By Early Voters As Lead Widens Over McCain - [...] some other weblog reaction to news of this poll and the issues raised by early voting: --Comments from Left…

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