Comments on: The Trap Has Been Set, The Bait Has Been Taken

By: Kyle E. Moore

Kyle E. Moore — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 20:49:57 +0000

I think you’re right again Mark. You know one thing that continues to impress upon me is the fact that while the McCain campaign is trying to be Rove-Like, they persist in failing to do the most important thing in a Rove strategy; make sure the official campaign is clear of the worst stuff.

The thing about how Rove operates is that he keeps his candidate relatively clean so that his team gets to have their cake and eat it too. They get the benefit of mud sticking to their opponent while at the same time not having to worry about the nastiness of the campaign dragging down their favorables.

But McCain has been taking on the guise of both candidate and chief surrogate in a lot of instances. Further, we know that Vice Presidential candidates are supposed to be attack dogs, but Palin has taken her role way too far as well.

The fact that we are in a crisis period wherein people really do care more about the issues because those issues could have a serious detrimental effect on their lives only compounds the effect.

By: Mark

Mark — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:21:21 +0000

Thinking about this a little bit more, I’m wondering if personal attacks in the context of a debate EVER work (my initial comment emphasized that this just doesn’t work for McCain because he is unusually bad at hiding the meanness behind his attacks). The only real personal attacks I can recall during debates all backfired, most infamously Rick Lazio’s attempt to get Hillary Clinton to sign that ridiculous pledge. Bob Dole (who was and is generally regarded as a ‘nice guy’) failed spectacularly in bringing up Bill Clinton’s marijuana use during a debate. Bush I (who was regarded as a ‘wimp’) failed spectacularly in trying to bring up Bill Clinton’s Vietnam War protests.

Personal attacks that have a clear tie to policy substance seem to work (i.e., charges of flip-flopping), but I can’t recall a true personal attack actually succeeding during a debate.

That’s not to say that personal attacks don’t work outside the context of a debate – at a minimum, they can probably succeed in reducing your opponent’s turnout. But when a candidate does it during a debate, that candidate is perceived as lowering himself rather than bringing down his opponent. Outside that context, the candidate is separated enough.

By: Kyle E. Moore

Kyle E. Moore — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 02:00:13 +0000

You know what Mark? I agree with just about everything you said. The wingnut brigade wants McCain to hit Obama so badly on Ayers, but I don’t think they understand how potentially dangerous that is for McCain. I would say there is about a 90% chance that Obama has a killer retort, and if he does, that could solidify this race where it is right now. Incidentally, I wanted to get your thoughts on a post a little bit further below “The New Silent Majority”.

Armstrong, I agree with you completely too. Obama’s campaign is a logical extension of his work as a community organizer in a lot of respects, just as McCain’s “Mine by right” attitude towards the Oval Office feels very much like an extension of his life as a legacy. Incidentally, have you read the Rolling Stone piece, I think it’s called “Make Believe Maverick?” If there was a way to condense that from eighty billion pages to, say, half a page, that would be a major blow to McCain’s brand.

By: Ace Armstrong

Ace Armstrong — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 01:22:24 +0000

I think we saw the real John McCain in the aftermath of the South Carolina Presidential Republican Primary of 2000. If he is who he claims to be, he would have aggressively bounced back and given W. a run for his money. But no, he simply started whining – which is what Bush would have probably done if the tables were turned. Here we have a glimpse into the mind of a legacy individual. Rather than mustering the courage to confront reality and attempt to prevail, this personality will retreat into the comfort of privilege and entitlement.
This reality lies at the crux of this election because Barak Obama is not a child of privilege like George Bush and John McCain. He was not guaranteed a prep school education and automatic acceptance into the university of his choice regardless of grades and accomplishments. He is a man who has risen through the ranks of American society based on his accomplishments.
And it is exactly this reality that has given Obama a distinct advantage. He derives his strategy from raw experience, where McCain’s claims of experience are a littered trail of half truths and distorted benchmarks.

By: Mark

Mark — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 23:16:37 +0000

I’m going to make a prediction right here, right now. If McCain uses the words “Ayers,” “terrorist,” and “Obama” in the same sentence(s), it will backfire on him, even though it will increase the, uhh, fervor of the Republican dead-enders (which is a scary thought in itself but is largely irrelevant for purposes of winning an election). When McCain resorts to personal attacks in debates, I think he has a tendency to come across as a bully in a way that is unusually off-putting for all but his most rabid supporters.

Take a look at the way he acted in the California Super Tuesday debate towards Mittens. Although he wound up effectively clinching the nomination on Super Tuesday (and winning California), I have long suspected (based on the polls at the time and the way McCain was trending) that McCain did not have the margin of victory he should have had were it not for his bullying tactics (which managed to make even Mittens look sympathetic, IMHO). I can’t prove it, but my suspicion is that some of McCain’s “leaners” shifted to Huckabee due to that performance, which is a major reason Huckabee exceeded his Super Tuesday expectations.

Simply put – McCain’s not very good at being mean without appearing mean. If Obama keeps his cool in response – and he probably will – McCain’s Hail Mary will wind up getting intercepted, so to speak. I don’t think this will increase support for Obama so much as it will get some of McCain’s more lukewarm supporters to stay home on Election Day.