What’s Wrong With This Picture?

Can you point out what’s wrong with this picture?

Hint after the jump.

Okay, if you didn’t pinpoint it immediately like I did, here’s a second picture that may make it a little more clear:

That’s right boys and girls, West Virginia just entered the “toss up” category.  West Virginia, you know the state where only a quarter of the population voted for Obama in the primaries.  According to the Pollster aggregated numbers, McCain’s lead in the state is only 1.1 points.

Now, before you get uber excited, I think Nate Silver’s dead on when he points out that this is at least partly due to a single ARG poll that has Obama up incredibly by 8 points.  ARG, which already has an erratic reputation, should not of its own accord be taken as gospel.  But I find it very interesting that without the ARG poll, the general trend shows a narrowing of the race in West Virginia, with a couple of data points putting the race at only four points in McCain’s favor.

If another, more dependable, pollster puts the race at neck and neck in West Virginia, that could have a significant impact on the race.  Indeed, even without further polling this presents itself as an excellent opportunity for Obama to press his advantage and force McCain to protect the territory.

Doing so would have the further advantage of driving at least a news cycle as nobody, and I mean nobody would have predicted Obama could even be competitive in that state.

3 Responses to “What’s Wrong With This Picture?”

  1. tas says:

    Virgina and North Carolina aren’t just on the cusp; Obama polls at 8% in Virgina. Eight percent. Colorado and Nevada are in play, too. Michigan and Minnesota are out of play; ditto for Wisconsin. And Obama has slim leads in Ohio and Florida.

    McCain could win Ohio and Florida but still lose this election.

    But if Obama wins all the states Kerry won, plus New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada.. He’ll have over 350 electoral votes.

    This is shaping up to be a landslide.

  2. Actually, I drew my circle a little too big, my focus was solely on WV. NC I don’t have a lot of faith in, but here in Virginia, I’m very optimistic that Obama’s going to turn this state blue. It doesn’t hurt that Mark Warner is also on the ballot either.

  3. tas says:

    In NC, Bush got over 60% of the vote in 2000 and 2004, though. So the fact that it’s even in play (not just in play but Obama has a slight lead in the polls) goes to show just how fucked McCain is. He can’t secure a Southern GOP stronghold.


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