Closer Than Nate

I’m an admitted ego-maniac, so when I write here, especially here, I make a concerted effort to keep myself and my ego in check.  But for just this once I’m going to let that self control lapse.

Throughout this election, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has been lauded time and time again for his work and his electoral accuracy.  And let me just say that this was for very good reason; he has revolutionized the way in which electoral math will be studied and analyzed, and has secured for himself a well deserved place as a political analyst.

Me, I subscribe to the Billy Ray Valentine school of analysis; Billy Ray Valentine being the rags to riches Wall Street trader played by Eddie Murphy in the movie Trading PlacesI may not have a grasp on statistical analysis like Nate does, but I like to think I understand the basic pulse of America, how it works, how every day life influences the way people make decisions.

I say this because with the announcement that North Carolina is provisionally going to Obama, that would bring Obama’s electoral vote tally to 364.  If you’ll remember, I predicted he would win 367 electoral votes putting me only three away from the actual final total.  By contrast, Nate’s final number was 348.

I also predicted the popular vote with relative accuracy, suggesting Obama would get at least four points on McCain, potentially as much as six.

On the electoral map, the only two errors I made were predicting that North Dakota could go to Obama, and I had Missouri and Indiana backwards.  Since they were each worth the same amount of electoral votes, I kind of lucked out.

I’m not going to say that I’m in any way better than Nate Silver, but I did just want to point out that I was, for this one moment, more accurate.

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