Arabs, Jews, Unite for the Apocalypse

The Times of London is reporting that Saudi Arabia is putting plans in place to allow Israeli jets to fly through a corridor of its airspace in the event they plan to attack any Iranian nuclear facilities.  Last year, I heard an extremely interesting speech by a Jordanian diplomat where he said that as Iran gets closer to achieving a nuclear state, Israel and the Arab world will be driven together to unite against them.  He added that Iran would do whatever necessary to prevent a pan Arab-Israeli peace.  This could be done through their proxy players in the region, primarily Hezbollah,  and to a lesser extent, Hamas.

How Iran responds to this will tell us about their asymmetric strategic resources.  The most obvious response would be to use their go-to proxy player in the region, Hezbollah, to launch an attack on Israel.  This however, would have the subtlety of a meth crazed bull in a nine-inch-nails t-shirt.  Everyone would know it was them, and it would most likely cost them the good will they have built up with Turkey.  A second possible option  would be through Hamas.  For years Iran has been supplying Hamas with logistical support and weapons.  If there were to be an attack on Israel from Hamas, most likely with some high end technology, they would be able to claim deniability to the international community (a Shiite nation controlling Sunni fundamentalists?) but send a clear message not to work against them.  However, it is unclear if Hamas has any capabilities to mount an attack on Israel, as the IDF has been very effective at taking out their terrorist leadership and support capabilities.

If such an attack were to happen, we would be able to learn quite a bit from Israel’s response.  Any major Israeli response in Lebanon or Gaza would kill any  seedlings of trust that this unofficial strategic partnership would have created.  However, if Israel has an unusually tempered response, this could be interpreted as a nod by Israel to the value of a military partnership, and lead to greater cooperation, as Arab leaders would not fear serious Israeli counter terrorism actions after unofficial strategic agreements become public

However, an attack on Israel  by Iran would be beating the wrong end of the mule.  Israel will always be working to gain a strategic advantage over Iran, so Tehran may look to go after the Saudi’s.  Over the years, I have read that Iran’s true national defense is not its army, but a global network prepared to fight an asymmetric war all over the world.  If we see a major attack in Saudi Arabia, then there is a good chance Iran is making a statement of work with Israel, and we will go after you in your soft spots.

I just hope that if Iran does decide to break this up, the IDF or Saudi police can stop them.

p.s. It could be just that this was at 4am and im reaaaally tired, but this felt really morbid and got me really depressed.

2 Responses to “Arabs, Jews, Unite for the Apocalypse”

  1. Hey, good to see someone writing over here … I thought you guys died.

  2. Is there a memory-hole concerning Rupert Murdoch’s ownership of The Times of London?

    Perhaps it used to be a credible newspaper but now it’s only as trustworthy as one of Murdoch’s FOX Propagandists babbling conspiracy theories.

    Taking anything that any of Murdoch’s mouthpieces say at face-value is at best deeply foolish and at it’s worst recklessly stupid.

    Be careful of buying into too much right-wing propaganda.

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